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For now, the "third pole" seems to favor the right

For now, the “third pole” seems to favor the right

Some studies and analyzes published in recent days suggest thatStepping out of the center and a so-called formulation The “Third Pole” of the Center It may have increased the lead of the right-wing coalition, which has already been ahead in the polls for months.

Action leader Carlo Calenda’s declared motto is “not to let the right win”: he reiterated this in an interview on Tuesday. Press. Yet at this point – with a month-and-a-half campaign left before the election – his political activism seems to be having the opposite effect.

The first poll since the move from the center-left was released on Tuesday afternoon. Created by YouTrend / Quorum Institute Sky Tg24. The poll clearly shows that this time the right-wing coalition is not at all affected by the imminent birth of the “third pole” and remains at around 49 percent of the vote.

The centre-left, which had been given around 30 percent in various polls in recent weeks, on the other hand fell to 27.4 percent.

Something can change during the election campaign. Calenda and Matteo Renzi, president of Italia Viva, have repeatedly said they want to appeal to moderate voters in particular, as Silvio Berlusconi’s party seems to be succumbing to the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia in recent years. . Political reporters believe that among the most visible people of the new “third pole” in the coming weeks, if it passes, will be the outgoing ministers of Mario Draghi’s government, Mara Carfagna and Mariastella Gelmini, but above all the former leaders of the moderate faction. Forza is from Italy.

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On that day TomorrowJournalist Giulia Merlo writes The move in particular “would represent a danger to the centre-right in a disproportionate force, as it would erode Forza Italia’s electoral base and drive away votes especially from the north”. Even if the measure succeeds, “in single-member constituencies, the centre-left will be penalized”.

Out of 221 single member colleges scheduled by “Rosatellum”If a candidate with even one more vote than his opponents wins, Action or a possible “third pole” will attract voters, especially in electoral areas where the center-left is strong, namely in the cities of the North (where Action has achieved good results in past administrative elections) and Renzi’s twenty-year political career. Because Italia Viva is deeply rooted in the region of Tuscany.

According to estimates by the respected Cattaneo Institute, the center-left can currently win thirty out of 221 single-member constituencies. Compared to the previous analysis, in which the center-left, right-wing coalition “will capture 19 more individual seats in the House and 9 more seats in the Senate, reaching 61 percent of the total seats in the first case and 64 percent in the second”, writes Cattaneo Company. In short, that right would be very close to controlling two-thirds of parliament, which would allow the constitution to be changed without the need for a referendum.

Cattaneo Institute’s Prediction of Results in Chamber Single-Member Constituencies (Cattaneo Company)

The scenario of right-wing victory in majority single-member constituencies is reinforced by agreements between different but similar political forces to avoid the “Rosatellum” providing “deterrence” mechanisms. Votes for each other.

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“Rosatellum” In constituencies where a party presents candidates for a multi-member list, if two-thirds of the national seats are elected, it must also present a candidate for a single-member list. In short: the move or alliance of the center cannot be denied to field a candidate in a single member constituency contested by the centre-left.

Theoretically, the center-left and the “third pole” could agree to form an informal opposition and present deliberately weak candidates in some colleges: but it cannot be assumed that the personal relations between the leaders have deteriorated too much at this time. They can settle by August 22, the last day to submit their list of candidates.