Opinion polls show FdI leading, Democrats trailing. Melon is one point ahead of Leta

He has already won and is not participating. The boycott party stands out studies Politicians. 42% of Italians, reveals a recent survey by the Swg Institute, are not sure about going to vote. Two out of three voters, 62%, have decided not to follow or not to follow this August election campaign. Dissatisfaction with politics: A cross-sectional caveat. According to Utrent, 47% of Italians are “little” or “not excited” about the election bullfight. We start with a colorless image for a photograph of the political forces, a month before the election.

ranking

The snapshot confirms the ranking in the starting line-up when the Draghi government’s crisis began. Fdi and Pd are above. The former has a slight advantage according to Utrend, who rates the two competitors at 24.2% and 22.3% respectively. The fork for Swg is shorter: 23.8% to 23.3%. The same poll puts the former Lega and Cinque Stelle partners a few points away, with Carroccio on 12.5% ​​and Giuseppe Conte’s movement on 10.3%, both up half a point compared to the previous week. Forza Italia dreams of double digits: if Silvio Berlusconi’s party wants to exceed 10% for Tecné, Youtrend shares the blue team at 8.9%.

Heading to the election with tweets: Calenda and Meloni are growing up

The third pole

The picture of the “third pole” woven by Viva Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi, leaders of Action and Italy, is very uncertain. A Utrent poll also pegged the centrist reshuffle with Calenda at 2%, two-tenths behind former premier Rignano Sul Arno. It’s no coincidence that yesterday’s poll sparked heated reactions among some action enthusiasts on Twitter. Other studies instead give a central pole between Renzi and Calenda beyond the 3% limit required by Rosatellum. For example, Swg rates Action (again with Più Europa) at 6.5% and Italia Viva at 2.9%. There is a possibility of exceeding 10 percent. On the other hand, there is little doubt that Enrico Letta’s progressive camp took a hit after the dramatic divorce. Youtrend’s numbers — center-right at 49.1% and center-left at 27.4% — confirm the upward play. Especially in single-member constituencies, the Fdi-Lega-Fi alliance can fill in. Cattaneo has drawn the first map of colleges since Calendiano Retrofront.

Calenda-Renzi, Carpagna’s name appears for the third pole. Her: “Am I the front runner? The action is already with a leader”

Challenges

Two data to represent. First: At the end of the wide field, the centre-right could pick up another 19 single-member seats in the chamber and 9 more seats in the Senate, giving it 61% and 64% in both chambers. However, it is a real exploit – here is the second statistic – that the coalition could not provide a qualified majority to amend the constitution autonomously. A scenario considered “highly unlikely” by the Cattaneo Institute. In fact, 20 more colleges will be lost in the House and 6 more in the Senate, in both cases stripped from the center-left. Dem will be a real defeat in the regions with the fall of party strongholds like Prado, Croceto, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Ravenna. To date, Cattaneo’s survey puts the center-right majority at 245 seats in the Chamber and 127 seats in the Senate, pending a centrist pact to take shape. Solid, sure, but not so solid that you can put your hand on the card without inviting the other side of the hemicycle to the table.