Meteorology: winter 2022/23, latest forecast puts Italy at risk; We tell you what could happen
First offers for next winterLatest OffersWinter 2022/2023 Unfortunately, Italy may be in great danger in the coming months.
In fact, I Concerns on the climate frontor that a harsh winter similar to the winter of 2021/2022, is characterized by Too little rainthere is practically no snow and it is always above average temperatures.
If this really happened, this time Archaeology can be severe Because we are coming from months of severe drought, especially in some areas of our country. Meteorological Fall has been around for nearly two months now, but rain is still practically scarce or even absent.
The blame is attributed to a particular climatic phenomenon: Nina.
The World Meteorological Organization confirms this prediction. According to models and experts, in fact, the La Niña phenomenon, which began two years ago, in September 2020, has a 70% chance of continuing at least into the first part of winter, only to disappear between January and the beginning of the northern spring 2023.
To understand what it is, we have to turn our eyes thousands of kilometers from Italy, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
La Niña is a phenomenon formed by the cooling of the surface water temperature of the central and eastern oceans Which often affects the climate of the entire planet, with repercussions also in Europe and Italy. As we can see in the map below, the last reading of the Pacific water surface temperature (October 2022) indicated that it is about 1°C lower than the average, and in the coming months the trend should be towards a further decrease (-1,2°C). ).
As already happened last winter when the formations on a world scale were very similar, so it is conceivable At least until December, drought conditions persisted in Italy (or in any case little rain) with serious problems particularly related to the drying up of rivers and hydroelectric production.
the last seasonal forecast Central European (ECMWF) confirms the onset of a winter characterized by temperatures above the reference climate averages of about 1/1.5 °C, mainly in the north, part of the center (Adriatic sectors) and in the south; More in line with the period on the two main islands. Therefore, at least in December, there will be no danger of severe frosts (as has happened quite a bit in recent years): this is positive news in other respects, especially in terms of frightening increases in energy bills.
Only withearly 2023 Something could change on the weather front: Long-term forecasts start to smell an interesting signal about pressure abnormalities At 500 hpa (the altitude taken as a reference to understand the movements of the main characters in the atmosphere): it will be largely neutral in Western Europe and the Mediterranean.
In concrete terms, this means that higher pressure can be less complex and that greater presence of lower pressures can determine (after a very long time) the excess of moisture level measurement: in short, at the beginning of next year it can be More rain and snowat least according to current data.
Let me be clear, we are still talking about seasonal trends and therefore should be taken with due caution.
Above average temperatures up to +1/1.5°C for the onset of winter (Source: ECMWF)La Niña confirmed in the coming winter months (Source: ECMWF)Temperature anomalies over the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean