Three scenarios for America in the Middle East: What might happen

A regional conflict was sparked by the attack Hamas In Israel on October 7th, the US administration creates a minor political earthquake. The White House is real Rethinking its priorities decided to abandon the military in the Middle East, and with them its presence in the regionIraq And, perhaps, withdraw from Syria.

The United States and Iraq are poised to begin talks on the end of the Washington-led international military coalition in the country and how to replace it with bilateral ties. Negotiations are expected to last several months. 2500 soldiers Provides advice and assistance to local forces to prevent Islamic State resurgence. Coalition forces, primarily US forces, are targeted Deputy Tehran will be in Iraq for some time: TheIran Thus trying to increase influence in the region From its borders to the Mediterranean Through Syria and Lebanon, support for Yemen's Houthis passes unreservedly.

US withdrawal from some Middle East crisis areas could include Syria: Foreign policy he demands While no final decision has been made on the matter, four sources within the State and Defense departments said the White House is not interested in supporting a mission it deems unnecessary and that serious discussions are underway internally to determine how. When can it be withdrawn?

Is America abandoning the Middle East?

So is the US really being dropped from certain areas of Middle East drama? It appears that the number of US troops in Iraq will remain the same after the conclusion of the bilateral agreements, but the move is seen politically as an attempt to help the Iraqi prime minister internally, that is, by helping him face better. Protests, even armed protests, were fueled by Tehran.

The situation in neighboring Syria is more complicated. With nearly 900 troops on the ground, the United States is playing a key role in containing and weakening the ongoing Islamic State insurgency in northeastern Syria, working alongside its local partners, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Russian military. as well as Kurdish fighters and forces from Assad's army. So let's try to hypothesize possible future scenarios and try to establish their probabilities.

Three scenes

An abandonment Everything is shortOr a more likely scenario is a complete withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria Not possible: As already mentioned, the US is seeking bilateral agreements with Iraq to continue the training of local security forces, which would allow Washington to always remain in the country with directly controlled bases and infrastructure. The White House cannot leave the historic moment when Iran's presence in Iraq affects the balance of power in the country's internal politics. Looking at Syria, a complete disengagement would amount to a media disaster comparable to the escape from Afghanistan, and would revive not only the Islamic State but also the Kremlin's propaganda. United Nations.

Rebalancing the US presence is one option Almost: The number of troops in the US contingent in Iraq will remain virtually unchanged, and if it is reduced in Syria, what is plausible is what happened during the Trump administration, namely the redeployment of troops taken out of Syria. Full Middle East Theater. If this is not the case, the Pentagon will have to change its plans by increasing its air-naval presence in the Middle East seas, and the presence of the US Navy in the Western Pacific is very valuable at this particular historical moment. A deterrence against China and North Korea is akin to a US characterized by renewed aggressive diplomatic tones. Keep critical shipping lanes openIt is now under attack by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.

Again for this last reason, namely related to the priority of the chessboard Indo-Pacific Compared to the Middle Eastern (or European) one, the US presence in that region is unlikely to increase. Also, the conflict with Hamas, in which the Houthis have intervened, represents a critical point on the US domestic front ahead of the presidential election, given that the buildup of troops abroad did not bode well for either candidate during the election. Propaganda.