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Traffic will still be disrupted Several days in Central, Western and Southern Europe. Warm air mass Subtropical array It will move slightly, first eastward, then westward, but it will firmly establish its roots. The Mediterranean Sea Italy's weather conditions are completely controlled and classified Absolute consistency. The reason why an anticyclone persists in our latitudes is connected with its structure Stratospheric polar vortex It is compact and highly dynamic at all altitudes and forces the disturbed flow very high in latitude in the bed of very turbulent currents. They will have no agitation. So Anticyclone is easier Until early February. This is what solid predictions tell us.
for the following period We have to rely on 5/7 day forecast Probability, or an analysis based on the success rates of a particular view. These probabilities are assigned to approximately fifty members who tend toward shared scenarios. Analysis for the period 2-4 February program Many clusters (6 possible scenarios) However Focuses our attention On that day Mediterranean chessboard Let's see how the vision is Stability of high pressure field It is almost unanimous. All clusters converge towards that structure as far as we are concerned Probability A high pressure field persists over the Mediterranean Sea It is very highNear 80/90%.
For the following period ie 5-7 February Clusters are reduced to three, but once again we notice how they all look Well organized in our area. High field Pressure is still viewed as Most likely in the Mediterranean Although not excluding weak unstable passages, with stable weather in Italy, not too severe.
Finally we come Potential breakthroughAnalyzing the period 8-12 February. There are only two clusters That means the visions converge in only two scenes, a positive thing because it means less dispersion of the event. First bunch Days 8-9 a The closest crater to Italy with the possibility of a first break of equilibrium. I members However representative of this cluster They are 27 out of 51 This represents a setup success rate of over 50%. A probability of less than 50% favors the permanence of the high pressure group in Central and Southern Europe (Cluster 2).
So the probability of something changing between 8 and 9 days is still 50%, almost equivalent to a coin flip, It doesn't give us much security….but later In the next scenario On February 10-11 we note a A more decisive change. The anticyclone begins to dissipate and more unsteady currents associated with a still uncertain trough begin to arrive over Italy. The second bunch Italy sees significant deterioration, but representative members 24 vs. 27 The first cluster to see low-scratch transient passages.
Time must be reached February 12-13 want A certain integrity An Italian perspective Inserted into a bed of unsteady/turbulent currents That They will put an end to it In this long time Anticyclonic bracket. So The period of possible change is the second ten days of the month. It's hard to say what it will be Circulation Mechanics We must realize that if cold currents of arctic sea or continental arctic origin enter, but are reached by unstable currents capable of bringing back rain and snow. Naturally This trend needs to be reviewed And may be confirmed day by day Follow us for future updates.
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