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According to seasonal forecasts, May may be unusual. Reasons

Weather: May may be unusual for seasonal forecasts. Reasons

Spring: An unusual heat The European Meteorological Agency’s (ECMWF) seasonal forecast for next month has now arrived May: Danger for the unusual late spring of this year. The causes are found in specific synoptic figures that differentiate the weeks between spring and summer.

First a necessary prototype. In fact, it should be remembered Long-term trends They help to give a general and concise idea of ​​the large-scale rainfall and temperature So not to be confused with classic weather forecasts, it can be useful for planning events in your daily life. However, thanks to scientific advances, with decisive contributions to long-term climate assessment, seasonal trends have become an accurate tool for scientific forecasting.

Already with the start of the new May, that said Temperature They may be higher than the climatic average and may even deviate from reference values + 2 C in most parts of Central and Southern Europe. At the moment, fierce and heated conflicts are of interest to Italy Thanks to a stable and stable high pressure area. The Heat flames like first summer With the first improvement of the frightening African anticyclone, we can reach 30 C.
But be careful, that does not mean that the whole month will be spent under the sun and hot weather. In fact, the deities are not to be excluded Powerful meridian transmissionsAs has already happened in recent years: in practice it is a matter of sudden and rapid variations in the weather caused by cold currents descending from the northern part of the continent.

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In particular, the entry of cold and unstable drafts at high altitudes can, even abruptly, act as a trigger for an explosion. Heavy thunderstormsOften accompanied SleetEspecially in the afternoon.
All of these dynamics fit into the bigger picture of climate change. According to a recent study of data on climate evolution in southern Europe, including the Mediterranean basin and Italy, it emerged from 1979 to the present. The energy is increased At risk (Cape In technical terms: Convective available energy, I.e. available convection energy). The reasons for this increase need to be accurately identified in the increasingly stable and invasive presence of African anticyclone. Average temperature increase Also, as a result, more evaporation of seawater, which is then translated Fuel Events of strong intensity, sometimes intense.
All of this increases the number of hours with tropical rainfall, thunderstorms, and violent storms (major hailstorms). In short, one of the consequences Climate change In place. Two sides of the same coin: As the temperature rises, the risk of violent storms increases.

Temperature discrepancy for May (by ecmwf)Temperature discrepancy for May (by ecmwf)