“Remote Hypothesis of Pieces in the South”

Impact with the atmosphere Chinese rocket It will be, but when (where) it will be is still a mystery: YesThe uncertain margin for reconnecting the second stage of the rocket is reduced to 3 hours Long March 5 p.m.. This is indicated by the international sites that follow the path described by space debris and make their calculations in accordance with the North American Space Defense Command (NORAT): they update their estimates and acknowledge its impact.

Civil Defense: RThe emotional hypothesis that it would fall in Italy»

So it is marked Civil Defense, The uncertain window regarding the uncontrolled re-entry into the atmosphere of the Chinese space missile scheduled for tonight. At this time, the Three paths This will affect some sectors Nine central-southern Italian regions They are kept from 1:00 pm to 7:30 am. “The probability that one or more pieces may fall in our area is remote,” the department explains. However, the technical table will continue to follow the evolution of the situation with the available data until the impact of the land.

This point was made based on the latest data provided by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) during a new meeting of the updated technical schedule this afternoon at the headquarters of the Department of Civil Defense. Representatives of interested regions also attended the table to share analyzes and updates on the evolution of operations with the regions and operational structures of the National Civil Defense Service.

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Approximate time and place of impact

The European Organization for Space Surveillance (EU space surveillance and surveillance) indicates uncertainty of more than three hours, which puts the approximate time to 4:11 Italian time, so the time interval is from 1:00 am to 7 pm: May 9 at 30 am. It is currently not possible to establish the retrievable time and place with greater accuracy.

20 ton cylinder

Attention is needed because, at a speed of about 20 tons, the second phase of the Chinese Long March 5B rocket is one of the largest space debris to fall to Earth uncontrollably in recent years. In 2018, the Chinese space station, which had a suffocation all over the world, weighed eight.

Estimates of the orbits of these cylinders, which are five meters in diameter and more than 30 in diameter, are constantly being updated, and all international organizations that study them agree that the atmosphere could be affected early Sunday morning. May 9, with a large margin of uncertainty.

European space surveillance and surveillance radars indicate that the launcher’s position automatically descends when it rotates rapidly, at such an angle that the East estimates that there may be a resurgence within latitude between 41.48 degrees north and 41.48 degrees south: a large area, but most of the Earth’s surface is uninhabited Therefore, the statistical probability of impact on the ground in populated areas is low. “

However uncertainty is necessary and only a few hours before the return can more accurate estimates be kept and some parts begin to be excluded. Currently that area includes central-southern Italy Roma Below, Africa, the United States and South Asia and Australia, along with the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

“The return zone can be accurately calculated when the object is less than 120 km high: then it will fall in the path it is going to take,” said Tamaso Scoba, managing director of IAEA (International Space Station) to ANSA Defense). In 2020 the stadium of Lunga Marcia 5B also fell out of control, but then the focus shifted to epidemics; The problem is that uncontrolled falls of space debris occur more often than believed.

Last Updated: 20:12


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