Many ask us what the summer of 2022 will be like; We reveal whether there really is any projection »ILMETEO.it

Weather trend next summerAfter a freak winter, with unusual temperatures and prevailing drought, the onset of a dynamic and stormy spring, What a summer we should expect? A lot of people really ask us…

To answer this question we must rely on the so-called Long-Term Climate Outlook: An attempt to predict, in advance, the direction of the weather in broad lines over vast areal scales. way to make Seasonal forecast It consists in evaluating a series of indicators (solar, atmosphere, ocean, etc.) and possible remote connections (“If this happens in this part of the planet, then statistically after a while it will happen in that other part of the planet …”). Seasonal trends were once decidedly unreliable and merely a subject of study and interest in curiosity and passion, and now they are A valid tool for scientific forecasting, with critical contributions to long-term climate assessment. In Europe, the leader in this sector is the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting, ECMWFfrom Reading (UK).

Based on the latest updates available to us, next season will be marked by temperatures well above average between +1.5°C and +2°C Already started June In most parts of Europe, including Italy. When analyzing the map below, thermal anomalies stand out across nearly all of southern Europe, particularly the Mediterranean Basin, possibly due to a larger than infamous intrusion. African cyclone.

So this is one Summer premiereMoreover, in line with the past few years, during which the problem of climate change has become more visible and urgent, also in Italy.
The Rainfall They might turn instead Below average With
inability plyometrics in particular in the southern regions due to the continued existence of a high pressure field with its consequent risks droughtwhere we’ve already had the opportunity to experiment in recent months.

with regard to The rest of the summer seasonInstead, a lot will depend on the great protagonist at this time of year: Notorious African cyclone.

Until a few years ago, the slightest high pressure in the Azores (of oceanic origin) dictated the law to the ancient continent. But recently, we are witnessing an increasing intrusion of air masses from North Africa, those responsible for it Stronger and more stable heat waves Also in our country.
Well, by taking a look at the very long term outlook, it looks like we will have to deal with very high and above average calorific values ​​also in the next stage. July And August.
However, we will have the opportunity to talk about this in depth in the coming weeks.

First offers for next summer. Temperatures above average climatePrecipitation is below average climatic, risk of drought