Italy’s displacement of its population and ages: 12 million less in 50 years

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bleak picture. The resident population in Italy is rapidly decreasing: from 59.6 million in early 2020 to 58 in 2030, to 54.1 million in 2050 to 47.6 million in 2070. In short, the resident population in Italy has declined by 12 million in half a century. Istat’s predictions about Italy’s demographic future were no real surprise, but no less alarming. The ratio between young and old will be 1 to 3 in 2050 while the working age population will decline in 30 years from 63.8% to 53.3% of the total.

All this will be drained into the territory: in 10 years, 81% of the municipalities will have experienced a decrease in population, and 87% in the case of rural areas. The immediate impact will be on families, who will, on average, have fewer children than ever before. Therefore, fewer couples with children, more couples without children: by 2040, one in four families will consist of two spouses with children, more than one in five will not have children.

2048 deaths double births

From the projections of the resident population (baseline 2020) of statistics, symbolic key figures appear: 50.7 years, the average age of the population in 2050 (45.7 in 2020), in 2048 could be the year in which deaths can double births (784) thousand against 391 thousand), and 10.3 million people are destined to live alone in 2040 (8.6 in 2020).

The alarm was already sounded in October at Sole 24 Ore by the head of Istat, Giancarlo Pangiardo, who was clear: “Over time, the population loses its initial features: given a life expectancy of about 80 years, 400 thousand births per year ( This year we will drop below this threshold) corresponding to a population that stops long-term at just over 30 million, not 59 as it is now.”

Let’s start with decreasing population. Based on the “medium” forecast scenario, Istat projects a decline in the resident population over the next decade: from 59.6 million as of January 1, 2020 (forecast basis points) to 58 million in 2030. Over the medium term, the population decline will be More obvious: from 58 million to 54.1 million between 2030 and 2050. In the longer term, the consequences of projected demographic dynamics on the overall population become more significant. Between 2050 and 2070, the population will decrease by another 6.5 million.