Winter flop? We explain why FERUARY can change everything » ILMETEO.it

Winter fluctuates, but in February the real winter can roar againIn this first half of winter The bitter cold is often on the run With Italy pulled by (rare) arctic heartbeat Slopes of the northernmost latitudes of the ancient continent are significant counter back, of oceanic and African descent. You will remember, for example, “giant hurricaneThis is only during the holidays birthday It has kept us with sun and temperatures well beyond average weather, especially in the Central South and throughout the Alps.

Also a sign of constant climatic changes that are witnessing a continuous and relentless increase in temperatures in all seasons, we can speak, without sounding exaggerated, about winter flops until this moment; But that doesn’t mean the season is already over!
Indeed, the hypothesis of a second, cooler, and livelier winter hatch remains more alive than ever. And the thing will not be exceptional at all, on the contrary: February I often kept some A surprise from the point of view of the weather, even with the glacial raids that went down in history (just remember 1929 and 1956). And in later years, winter tends to raise its voice more than it is at the beginning of the season.

From a climatic point of view, the second half of winter often experiences fluctuations mainly caused by Final rupture of the polar vortex With masses of cold air traveling around Europe. But what triggered these events? The answer must be sought in high polar latitudes: as we can see from the map below, it is an anomaly stratified over the North Pole. By this term, in meteorology, we refer to a Extreme warming of the Earth’s stratosphere, just over the Arctic, in order 40°C in a few days.

Once activated, this heating gradually tends to expand towards the upper troposphere impact On the Polar vortex in about 2/4 weeks: In fact, the lower troposphere sector is forced directly into deformation (technically speaking, “dislocation of the polar vortex”) or splitting into 2-3 distinct minimums (“splitting” of the polar vortex), which travel, at least partially, in the direction of the lines middle width, Caused cold waves all the way to Europe So tooItalia.

Latest updates for February – From the study of some atmospheric indices and long-range weather maps, the most popular hypothesis runs in the direction of dividing into several parts of the Polar Vortex towards February, with the possibility of strong linear exchanges (i.e. cold currents descending from north to south).
Expectations European Center You begin to feel interesting movements on a hemispherical scale, with a possible separation towards central Europe (and thus towards Italy) from A strong mass of icy air of Arctic origin. Already at the end of January between the Scandinavian Peninsula and Russia “glacial lake“, With values ​​of around -20°C, ready to flow towards the heart of the old continent. We will then see if it will actually succeed in penetrating all of Italy or if it will only participate in some areas.
If confirmed, we may have to deal with a period characterized by temperatures well below average and also the possibility Snow falls to very low altitudes, somewhat similar to what actually happened in the recent past: 1991, 2012, 2018, to name a few.

Since these are medium and long-term predictions, it is of course necessary to remember that it is only one Expected time overview It is not a detailed forecast for the individual site.

Stratoforming: An abnormal and sudden rise in the stratosphere above the North Pole