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Primavera: un caldo fuori del normale

Spring is warmer than normal months. The trend for April-May is undoubtedly

Weather: Spring, warmer than normal months. The trend for April-May is no doubt

Spring: An unusual heat Weather: Spring, warmer than normal months. The trend for April-May is no doubt

Once unreliable and a mere object of study, long-term seasonal forecasts have now become more reliable and now represent an accurate forecasting tool.

So we explain the European Meteorological Center (ECMWF) seasonal forecasts Spring Also, we can already expect warmer than normal, once again, different months await us.

I must say that we are a long way off, we are talking about 30/50 day forecasts, so, inevitably we have to rely on what is called. Seasonal maps. Also, it must be understood Long-term trends They serve only to deliverGeneral and concise idea of ​​large-scale rainfall and temperature So not to be confused with classic weather forecasts, it can be useful for planning events in your daily life.

That said in some respects The forecast for April and May now seems certain. Temperatures early next month They will go up Above averageEven with deviations from reference values + 2 C for most of the Mediterranean. Currently The Heavy and so hot odds Areas of particular interest Center-North Thanks for a consistent and consistent area High pressure.
But be careful, that does not mean that the whole month will be spent under the sun and hot weather. In fact, the gods are not to be excluded Powerful meridian transmissionsAs has already happened in recent years: in practice it is Sudden and rapid variations Time with Late cold landing directly from the North Pole. Of course a lot depends on behavior Polar vortex It will, precisely in these intermediate seasons, actually fall Operates cold currents up to Italy.

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The Risks This kind of situation is very high and worrisome above all else Agriculture and Plants After winter, with the exception of frost and very little rainfall, it is already pre-season. First buds and first flowers. There will be some late frost Devastating consequences Both from the point of view More natural than economic.
Not only that: the risk posed by the differences between abnormal heat and sudden late frost eruption cannot be underestimated: extreme events occur frequently in Italy, especially in the spring.
Finally, pay attention Our healthEspecially with tail last strokes of diseases that are favored by significant temperature changes.
Not only that April. Further May This climatic trend can be followed with temperatures above average, and even with heat dissipations such as the first summer, the first development of the frightening African anticyclone is capable of reaching us at 30 C.

In short, we often live in a kind of cheese With alternating between long Anticyclonic phases Characterized by above-average temperatures and sudden bursts of cold air Extreme weather events. These are the signs of Climate change Progress and effects are being observed and further mentioned, in our country as well.

Temperature anomaly for April (by ecmwf)Temperature anomaly for April (by ecmwf)