LONDON (Reuters) – The European Central Bank’s interest rate hike cycle is over, according to all 85 economists interviewed by Reuters in a poll, but we will have to wait until at least July 2024 for the ECB to move towards monetary easing, given that… The battle to keep inflation at bay continues.
In September, the ECB raised key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 4.00% and the refinancing rate to 4.50%, but indicated that the 10th increase may be the last.
None of the 85 economists interviewed by Reuters from October 12 to 19 expected another increase in the cost of money, but there is greater uncertainty about the timing of the first possible cut.
58% of economists, 48 out of 83, indicate that this may happen in the third quarter of next year, or later, and that the deposit interest rate will be at 3.50% by the end of September.
In a poll conducted after the September meeting, 29 of 70 participants said that the first reduction would occur in the second quarter of next year, or earlier.
Still, just over 40% of respondents to the latest poll, or 35 out of 83, say the first mitigation step will come before the July meeting.
(Translated by Chiara Scarsilia, Edited by Sarah Rossi)
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