August, too hot or too rainy for vacation? We reveal all the shades for the summer of 2023 » ILMETEO.it

Season views for AugustAn ancient proverb says: “D’Agosto, my wife, I do not know you“.

It is a common saying in Italy and many parts of Europe. In essence, the ancestors advised husbands not to overdo it and not get too tired during the hot season.

So a warning for the next month of summer vacations? To understand whether the African anticyclone will really dictate the law in our country throughout the summer or we will have to deal with frequent rains and hailstorms, we have to analyze as usual. Seasonal forecastSerial codes (solar, atmospheric, oceanic, and others) and possible teleconnections (“If it happens on this part of the planet, statistically it will happen on the other part of the planet a little later…”).

Seasonal forecasts, which were once decidedly unreliable and merely an object of study and of interest to enthusiasts and enthusiasts, have become a valid tool for scientific forecasting, with decisive contributions to long-term climate assessment.
In Europe, the European Center is leading the sector, and in Italy, there is a new headquarters in Bologna.

there Second part of July It promises to be even warmer, with values ​​burning from north to south. However, our focus shifts to the next month: based on the latest updates, and more August We expect Average temperatures range from +1 to +3 degrees Celsius Over most of Italy.
Analyzing the map below, the thermal anomaly over practically the whole of Southern Europe immediately catches the eye, especially since the infamous ones persist in the Mediterranean region. African resistance. This means expect new things Strong and persistent heat waves In our country the first ten days will end and throughout the second half of the month.Temperatures above climatological average in August (Source: ECMWF)So it’s okay to talk “Subtropical” climate Because the incoming air masses come directly from tropical latitudes, i.e. the heart of the Sahara desert”. The imaginary line of African heat increases in latitude and seems to cover much of southern Europe; in short, here is one of the effects of climate change.

High levels of humidity (condition) can make the heat even more unbearable and the reason is purely geographical: In fact, warm air masses from the African continent are enriched with moisture as they pass over our oceans, and this affects Humidity ratesstimulus Physical discomfort.

What’s new in the latest update, However, it’s not just about the temperature, it’s about more than concrete risk Sudden and heavy thunderstorms. The second map we offer, ever European Center, Highlights a Surplus rain In Italy, especially in the northern plains and Tyrrhenian regions.Above Climatological Average Precipitation in August (Source: ECMWF)Among the consequences of this changing climate (toward warming) is the Risk of extreme weather events. Indeed, with heat, the energy involved also increases and, above all, thermal anomalies are particularly enhanced, Makes a deadly combination for impressive growth storm cells, Even up to 10/15 km altitude.
After a heat wave, large amounts of moisture and heat are trapped in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Subsequently, convective movements (warm air rising) favor the appearance of fresh and unstable air from high altitudes (usually down from northern Europe). violent storms, with high risk Sleet And in some cases, fortunately rare, too Cyclone.