“30 billion Sting in 2025.” Europe has nothing to do with it

The excessive deficit infringement procedures, which Brussels should open against Italy in the summer, have already raised the alarm: adapting to the Stability Pact, second According to expert calculations, the government will have to reduce public spending by between 9 and 10 billion euros annually. But according to the commitments made by the executive branch itself in the latest economic and financial document, the size of the cuts could be much larger, reaching $30 billion. This is what the Catholic University Observatory of Public Accounts estimates.

The definition provided by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti indicates an increase in the ratio between public debt and GDP of about 2.5 percentage points between the end of 2023 and the end of 2026, with only a slight decrease in 2027. Government forecasts, we read in purpose The Observatory said that these results are “based on relatively optimistic assumptions for the trend of real GDP, inflation, and privatization proceeds.” Moreover, it does not take into account the “policies to support the economy (totaling approximately 20 billion, including cuts in social contributions and spending 15 billion) that will expire at the end of 2024” and which “the government has undertaken.” She indicated that she wanted confirmation.”

Taking into account these intentions and a more realistic estimate of the performance of the Italian economy and privatization returns, the Observatory wrote that “a truer picture of the state of our public finances with no policy change would lead instead to an increase in privatization.” “The ratio between debt and GDP” by about 5.5 percentage points by the end of 2026. “This – he continues – confirms the need for significant adjustment measures that must be introduced in the next budget law, not only to refinance the measures that will expire at the end of 2024, but even to preserve The debt-to-GDP ratio around the expected values ​​at the end of 2024 (137.8 percent) will require the introduction of corrective measures worth about $30 billion.” Experts from the Catholic University.

What does Italy risk with EU accounting procedures?

The reduction would therefore be three times higher than what the initiation of infringement proceedings in the EU would entail. Unless the government decides to end business support policies. This is a hypothesis that the executive authority may prefer to discuss publicly after the next elections in June.