Italy's GDP is +0.3%. The super bonus just gets worse

New signs of optimism about the Italian economy. After promoting the Standard & Poor's agency that on Friday night confirmed the triple B rating on Italian debt with a “stable” (i.e. forecast) outlook, the Confcommercio research center sees a positive outlook for the first quarter of the year which should show growth of 0.3%, an acceleration compared to the first estimate. Which reported an increase of 0.1%. This trend brings the trend, i.e. the increase compared to the same quarter last year, to +0.5 percent. Inflation is also in good shape, which after accelerating in March (+1.2%) should ease to 1% y/y in April.

For Confcommercio, “our economy, although going through a not particularly dynamic period, still finds important ideas of vitality, coming primarily from the service sector and, with particular strength, from outbound tourism.” Therefore, “operating dynamics remain satisfactory, which in turn supports income and consumption.”

If S&P's strengthening of public accounts and economic growth is good news for Italy and its Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, the same cannot be said for the worrying gap inherited from years of cheerful tax breaks. According to Unipresa estimates, the super bonus and other tax cuts allocated to construction were the cause of a €41.6 billion fraud on public accounts. In fact, the tax credit offsets calculated in the last three years are this much: 6.4 billion in 2022, 20.9 billion in 2023, and 14.3 billion in 2024. The largest share of this enormous pie goes to the 110% Superbonus which Its value amounts to 76.2% of the total, i.e. 31.7 billion out of approximately 42 billion. It is a partial calculation, as the latest estimates indicate a rock worth 219.5 billion for all construction tax allowances granted from 2021 to April 4. “The management of the super bonus, at the fiscal level, was not optimal,” we read in the UNIMPRISA report, “from the beginning, it was necessary for the rule to be accompanied by prior authorization procedures, thus allowing the introduction of an expenditure limit.”

Mast