UPB: “Italian debt remains second highest in eurozone”

(Telebursa) – In the draft budget plans (DPB) of eurozone countries for 2024, real GDP growth is estimated at an average of 0.9 percent for 2023, rising to 1.7 percent in 2024. Growth will be positive in 2023 for all countries except Estonia. Austria and Lithuania, while growth reached zero for Finland. For 2024, according to development plans, all eurozone countries will again benefit from growth exceeding 1%, with an average of 1.7%. This is what I highlightParliamentary Budget Office In the new The focus analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal frameworks presented by the 20 euro area countries in their 2024 budget planning documents.For the major economies of the euro area, – notes the OBR – real GDP growth began to lose momentum during 2023 with knock-on effects on 2024 as well. According to estimates of the relevant budget plans,German and Spanish economy They should grow more than expected in 2023 (0.4 percent in Germany, 2.4 percent in Spain) and less than expected in 2024 (1.6 percent in Germany, 2 percent in Spain). The Commission's forecast for the fall is lower than the budget forecast. to GermaniaIt is expected that the real GDP in 2023 will be in negative territory and equal to -0.3 percent, while in 2024 it will return to growth of 0.8 percent. For Spain only, 2024 is lower and equals 1.7 percent. In case FranceReal GDP growth in 2023 should remain in line with the expected figure in the performance index (1%), but will weaken in 2024 to 1.4. The Commission only indicates a lower forecast for 2024, at 1.2 percent. with regard to Italy, Economic activity growth is expected to be lower than that indicated in the PS in 2023, with the government forecasting that the value of real GDP will grow by 0.8 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than that indicated in the PS in 2024., It is a year in which growth expectations fall from 1.5% of PS to 1.2% of DPB. The deteriorating growth prospects for Italy are also confirmed by the European Commission's autumn forecasts, which indicate, respectively, growth of 0.7 percent for 2023 and 0.9 percent for the current year.

economic inflation – Average inflation rate estimates in the main euro area countries are 5.7% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. However, inflation expectations show different dynamics and remain characterized by widespread uncertainty. In Germany, the inflation rate is expected to reach 5.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, values ​​​​in both cases lower than those expected in the PS report last April. The European Commission estimates the higher values ​​at between 6.3 and 3 percent. For France and Spain, inflation growth rate forecasts for 2023, at 5.7 and 5.9 percent respectively, show higher values ​​than those estimated in the PS while inflation in 2024 is expected to record lower or similar levels (2.5) percent in France, 3.6 In Spain). In Italy, inflation is expected to reach 4.5% in 2023, lower than those forecast in PS, and in 2024, stabilize at levels similar to previous estimates of 2.9%.

religion – Regarding the debt-to-GDP ratio, of the debt balance of euro area countries, the average level is 90.7 percent in 2023 and drops slightly to 90.1 percent in 2024. Twelve countries record a ratio above 60 percent and six Countries at higher levels. Than 100 percent. For the year 2024 Italy Public debt to GDP is expected to be largely stable compared to 2023 The second highest percentage (140.1 percent) after Greece (152.2 percent)While Estonia still expects the lowest ratio of public debt to GDP (20.9 percent). Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio for 2023 is lower than what was published in Def last April thanks to the upward revision of the estimate of the level of nominal GDP for 2021 and 2022, recently carried out by Istat, which also continues in the following years. In 2024, Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio declines only marginally by 0.1 percentage point of GDP compared to the 2023 estimate. Regarding the debt-to-GDP ratio, from Dpb for Eurozone countries in euros, the average level is It is equal to 90.7 percent in 2023 and drops slightly to 90.1 percent in 2024. Twelve countries record levels above 60 percent and six countries record levels above 100 percent.

Disability – Regarding the nominal deficit relative to GDP estimated in the budget plans, the overall average is expected to reach 3.4 percent in 2023, while in 2024 the average will fall to 2.9 percent. As for primary income (revenues minus expenditures net of interest on debt), according to the budget plans, a deficit equivalent to 1.7% of GDP is expected on average in 2023, then it will decrease to 1.1% in 2024. According to DPB, in Nine countries (including Italy) The deficit is expected to remain at levels above 3% of GDP, while three countries expect to achieve a budget surplus. the DPB from Slovakia It represents the highest deficit relative to GDP (6.3 percent in 2023, this year at 6.5 percent), while Cyprus expects the highest budget surplus relative to GDP (2.5 percent in 2023, 2.8 percent in 2024). between Major economies of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy, Spain)However, the targets on the nominal budget deficit that had been pre-programmed in the respective special programs were confirmed in France and revised, respectively, for the worse in Italy and for the better in Germany. in Germania, the deficit in relation to GDP projected by DBP for 2023 improves significantly compared to the latest PS estimate in April, moving from about 4.3 percent to about 2.5 percent of GDP while for 2024 it is expected to worsen slightly compared to previous estimates. . However, new measures announced by the government to support companies in the face of rising energy prices put these goals at risk, while a recent ruling by the German Constitutional Court on the debt brake mechanism set out in Germany's digital budget rules may require the adoption of further consolidation of government interventions. For the year 2024 and the following years. Among the major eurozone economies alone DPB from Italy It expects the primary deficit for 2023 and 2024 to worsen compared to what was planned in PS and expects an above-average deficit that is second only to that of Slovakia. Italian government estimates revise net debt targets to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2023, worsening by 0.8 percentage points compared to the PS figure, and to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2024, 0.6 points more than previous targets. the DPB from France The primary deficit for 2023 and 2024 is expected to remain unchanged compared to SP targets. Even in Spain, the budget balance projections in relation to GDP do not differ from the objectives of the strategic plan last spring, as the budget plan, presented by the outgoing government, is based on the assumption of no policy change.

In conclusion, it is among the main countries in the Eurozone Only Spain appears to be generally in line with all EU recommendations. The committee called Germania To reduce energy support measures as soon as possible in 2023 and 2024, while Italy “It should be prepared to adopt the necessary measures within the national budget process to ensure that budget policy in 2024 is consistent with the Council’s recommendations,” writes the Budget Office. there France, He notes that the Parliamentary Budget Office “has been called upon to take the necessary measures within the framework of the national budget process to ensure that budget policy in 2024 is in line with the recommendations.”