The supersunspot that caused the aurora returns in early May

Earlier this month, the active solar region AR 13664 produced 12 X-class solar flares over the course of six days. Now, because Rotation movement from the sun, sTa go back to exposing themselves Towards the ground Its coronal mass ejections could return to cause a spectacle and disaster.

In the previous step, these CMEs caused a G5 geomagnetic storm on Earth. This category of phenomenon The first since 2003, It caused the aurora borealis to spread around the world. On May 14, on its last day before orbiting behind the Sun’s western edge, the active region produced the largest solar flare since September 2017, with an explosion of class X8.79. Even the Starlink system was damaged.

The Sun has an average rotation period of 27 days, allowing the Earth to see a certain active region for about two weeks before rotating to the Sun’s western edge. Because of the historical inability to track an active zone around the back of the Sun, the barely visible active regions orbiting the eastern edge of the Sun have been given a new active zone number. So, with its new arrival on the horizon, AR 13664 has been renamed AR 13697, but it is the same very active sunspot.

However, in this case, AR 13664/13697 has never been hidden from view, thanks to ongoing X-ray observations from the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft, which is currently located behind the Sun (from our view) for the coming months. As it crossed over the back of the Sun, the active region slowed down somewhat and the overall frequency of X-class flares decreased dramatically. But with it emerging again, we can begin to assess whether this quieter trend will continue.

The first hint to Sunspots AR 13697 appeared late on May 27, while the entire area was visible on late May 28. Making the entrance worthy of its former reputation, the active region produced a solar flare of Although the large flares from the back of the Sun have subsided, Monday’s X-class solar flare says the region is still capable of producing these noteworthy events.

Solar flare X-2.9 erupts from the Sun on May 27, 2024. (Image credit: NASA/SDO, AIA, EVE, HMI Science Teams/helioviewer.org)

The active region will continue to orbit the sun for the next two weeks, providing a view of any solar flares coming from the region during this window. Light from any solar flare in this window will reach Earth, with possible short-range radio outages. These are temporary interruptions in the propagation of radio waves on the side of the Earth facing the sun, and last about an hour.

As we saw in mid-May 2024, some flares could also trigger a coronal mass eruption. Unlike flares, CMEs are directional, and their potential impact on Earth depends largely on the location of the source on the Sun. To have the best chance of reaching Earth, a CME must erupt from slightly to the right of the Sun’s center. AR 13697 will reach its optimal contact position with Earth around June 4-6, almost a full solar cycle (27 days) starting with solar flares in mid-May. Explosions near this window will have the best chance of producing a geomagnetic storm and enhanced aurora here on Earth.

Fortunately, the jungle seems to be quieter this time. With fewer X-class flares coming from AR 13697 than its previous cycle, does this reduce the chances of another major auroral appearance? Partly, but the issue is more complex.

The May 2024 geomagnetic storm was extremely powerful thanks to the after-effect of several coronal ejections in quick succession. Had their arrival been isolated from each other, the impact of each individual CME would have been less noteworthy. If the current trend of fewer X-class solar flares continues, similar bombardment by multiple flares is unlikely.

However, under ideal conditions, a single flare is sufficient to produce an intense, fast, and ideally positioned/directed coronal ejection, which is necessary to replicate a similar geomagnetic storm.

So we’ll just have to wait and see.