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Latest updates from the stratosphereWhich tells of a new gradual strengthening of the polar vortex after the severe weakening of the past few days due to the first and intense global warming since November.
Forecasts now show a rebound vortex pole But a weakening followed in the third decade due to new and intense warming in the stratosphere. However, global models show different timelines. According to Ecmwf, for example, apart from the weakness in March, the wind reversal at 10 hPa is seen during April, while the wind reversal for the GFS model would be earlier.
So it can be the final warming Dynamic since evolution will be accelerated by heat input from the troposphere. Final warming, or the last stratospheric warm-up of the season, is a natural event, occurring every year. It marks the beginning of the summer “inactivity” of the stratospheric vortex that will then return in the fall. The most interesting frontlines are the dynamics that are most likely to influence the rotation of the mid-latitudes.
In particular, the median forecast shows a pattern characterized by an anticyclone in Scandinavia and low pressure over Greenland around 20 March, a mode supported by the Julian Oscillation in transition 2–3. Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex due to heat input from the troposphere.
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