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IMF: “In 2026 Italian growth will collapse to +0.2% due to the cessation of the supergrant and less stimulus from the Pnrr program”

IMF: “In 2026 Italian growth will collapse to +0.2% due to the cessation of the supergrant and less stimulus from the Pnrr program”

Italy's growth in 2024 and 2025 will reach about 0.7% “thanks to investment programmes” and with the contribution of budget policy. But in 2026 it will collapse to 0.2% “as the super bonus runs out and Pnrr continues to exist but not as strong.” International Monetary Fund, […]

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the growth From Italy in 2024 and 2025 will be around 0,7% “Because of investment programmes” and with the contribution of budgetary policy. But in 2026, it will collapse to 0.2%.” Extra bonus Which reaches exhaustion and Pnrr “It still exists, but not that strong.” the International Monetary FundWhich two days ago had already lowered its GDP forecast for the peninsula, is now broadening its analysis horizon and forecasting a bleak picture. Quite different from those set by the government in Economic and financial documentaccording to which the GDP will rise by 1% this year thanks to a 0.9% increase from the maximum tax credit that was permanently stopped with the recent decree on tax breaks in construction, and in 2025 it will record +1.2% and after that it will decline slightly to +1.1% .

Helge Berger, Deputy Director of the Fund's European Department, explained at the press conference on the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe that the policies that will be adopted in the coming years will still be able to change the situation for the better: “Italy can be sure that Structural reforms The internal parts are in order. There is a lot of work to be done in terms of repairs infrastructure And Dale'directions. These efforts will make a difference if they continue Greater momentumHowever, the use of debt would not be of much benefit, an avenue that Italy would in fact rule out under the rules of the new Stability Pact.

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Overall, “low growth potential remains an Achilles' heel for Europe,” the IMF warns, stressing that the time has come on the Old Continent to consolidate public accounts with the aim of strengthening their sustainability. “Deep budget reforms It will be necessary to address the spending pressures associated with lPopulation agingneeds defense And financing for Green transformation. “Structural reforms to increase per capita growth must be part of the solution.”