Prime Minister Mario Draghi, in his flashy appearance in Brussels last week, said very clearly: Italy will do everything possible to ensure that the package of sanctions against Moscow that will start automatically in the event of aggression against Ukraine is excluded from the energy sector due to our great efforts. Reliance on Russian gas supplies. But the Italian government’s forecast is likely to be disappointing.
Under current European rules, the decision on sanctions rests with the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. However, the high activity of the President of the European Union Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, means that the Commission has taken over the power to determine which sectors will be applied sanctions, leaving only the so-called “list” to Borrell and a foreigner. Service, that is, a list of Russian natural persons or companies against whom sanctions will be applied.
EU sanctions agreed directly with Washington
Over the past few days, von der Leyen, her prime minister, and trusted man, Bjorn Seibert, have been in close coordination with the offices of the US State Department and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to agree on areas where they can intervene. The package, in its broad outline, has already been closed, but by the will of the chairman of the commission it has not been drawn up in black and white to avoid leaks that could undermine its effectiveness. It is only a question of when to fire (the so-called “trigger”) and in what way, that is, by the type of violation by the Russians.
The first sanctions will begin with Putin’s declaration of the republic’s independence
A limited set of sanctions could be imposed in a very short time over the next few hours if Putin recognizes the independence of the pro-Russian republics of Ukraine. However, in order for the measures to be effective, they must be scrutinized by the governments of the member states. Sanctions should relate to obstructing the transfer of advanced technologies while for the financial sector there will be a mass of purchases of securities in secondary markets and the obligation to exchange all transactions between the ruble and the dollar first in the euro.
There are no Swift locks at this time. There is a risk of inflaming the Russian-Chinese regime
However, no ban should be activated for the time being on the international payment system Swift, a software company now used by all banks in the world based in Brussels. Indeed, it is feared that the imposition of a Swift blockade will speed up the process already underway aimed at adopting an alternative payment system to the Swift being studied in China and Russia with potentially negative repercussions also on transactions with Western countries.
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