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By how much the cost of the mortgage will decrease each month.  Scenarios

By how much the cost of the mortgage will decrease each month. Scenarios

Mortgages are becoming cheaper, and the next interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in June could lead to another cut Monthly discount. Today, for the fifth time in a row since July 2022, the European Central Bank confirmed The cost of money remains unchanged. The interest rate on the main refinancing remained unchanged at 4.50%, on deposits at 4%, and on marginal loans at 4.75%. But President Christine Lagarde has given signals that seem to confirm a rate cut in the summer.

After difficult years, with the gradual increase in the cost of money leading to a significant rise in housing finance, a breath of fresh air has begun to flow to indebted citizens. Mortgage rates continue to decline in February: Bank of Italy Reports indicate that loans were disbursed to families with a Average April, including additional costs of 4.31% (compared to 4.38% in January). Let's see in detail how much mortgage payments cost today and how much they could fall in the coming months.

Mortgage rates falling to 4.31% stimulated consumption and retail sales

the shift

Fixed rate mortgages have finally reversed course, with the first declines on… Cost of monthly installment After two years of increases. The effects of halting interest rate increases are already being seen and are now expected The first European Central Bank cutsWhich will bring benefits worth tens of euros into the pockets of citizens. Under these circumstances, in the coming months, those who pay high interest on their loan may choose solutions. This is the mechanism by which you can change your mortgage, Choose another bank Improving financing disbursement conditions.

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Mortgage, does it come with a saving of 100 euros per installment? What could change with an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in June?

The amount of lower mortgage payments

According to current data, and considering the amount and average term of the home loan, falling rates mean that the premium for those who have now taken out a home loan Variable mortgageit decreases on average by 48 euros per month compared to its peak November 2023According to the National Consumers Federation. We are talking about an annual saving of 576 euros.

Mortgages, Interest Rates Still Falling: The APR for a home payment has fallen to 4.31%. Now consumption is rising

Decrease in TAIG

According to the report he published Palazzo hut Titled “Banking and Money: A National Series”, then Share of these loans With a stabilization period the initial rate of up to one year was 17% (22% in the previous month). The annual interest rate on new consumer credit payments 10.59%. Interest rates on new loans to non-financial companies were instead equal 5.34%. Today, the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates is expected, which according to analysts should remain unchanged.

Central banks in red, governments without profits: the other side of high interest rates

What changes with an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank?

Going forward, as we mentioned, analyst forecasts point to the possibility of the ECB cutting interest rates by 0.25% by June-July. To which a second installment of 0.25% or even 0.5% can be added in the fall: the variable installment must therefore decrease by at least 20-40 euros per month In June and at least others 30-50 euros in December.

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In the case of the loan signed in January 2022 and lasting 25 years in the amount of € 126,000 – highlighted – the mortgage installment has arrived Up to €752 in December 2023With an initial 50 basis point reduction in the cost of funds, it could fall to €712, saving €40 per premium. With further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the premium at the end of the year could reach €657. That's by saying Almost 100 euros less by December. By extending the time horizon, in June 2025, the premium could fall to €633, or about €120 less. According to experts, however, to find new offers A mortgage with a fixed interest rate of about 2.7%-2.5%. You may have to wait until the end of the year.

Mortgage rates falling to 4.31% stimulated consumption and retail sales

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