With a preview of the full forecast for L ILMETEO.it next month, it promises to be significant from the beginning of June.

First improvements for JuneThe European Meteorological Agency’s (ECMWF) seasonal forecast for next month has now arrived June: Promises to be this year Notable from the beginning, With direct effects in Italy. The causes are found in specific synoptic figures that differentiate the weeks between spring and summer.

First a necessary prototype. Remember that Long-term trends They help to give a general and concise idea of ​​the large-scale rainfall and temperature It should therefore not be understood as classic weather forecasts used to plan events in one’s daily life. However, thanks to scientific advances, seasonal trends have now changed The perfect tool for scientific predictionWith decisive contributions to long-term climate assessment.

The first thing to consider, based on the latest forecasts, is already the beginning of the new June. Temperature They may be higher than the climatic average and may even deviate from reference values + 3 C Much of Midwestern Europe, including Italy. The cause must be found in the specific arrangement of the high and low pressure areas: often we already have to deal with fear. African resistance. With the exception of more sun, we expect temperatures to rise further with the subtropical appearance of air masses (inside the Sahara Desert), especially in the central-south and two large islands: this will probably translate. In real flames of heat the thermometers are ready to radiate Widespread above 32/33 C.
But be careful, this does not mean that the whole month will be spent under the banner of sunshine and hot weather. The disadvantage of this particular synoptic condition is risk Extreme weather events.

This is the main point: in the heat It also increases the energy involved And above all heat differences are enhanced by creating a deadly compound for the growth of particularly impressive ones. Storm cells, Even up to a height of 10/15 km. These events often affect small areas, which is why weather forecasting is essential in the short term. (Novcasting) In order to alert potential affected areas as soon as possible.

Especially in the regions Center-North, After a heat wave in the lower layers of the atmosphere, the greatest dangers arise when a large amount of moisture and heat accumulate. Following that, during the first fresh and unstable winds at high altitudes (usually downward from northern Europe), convective movements (rising hot air) are particularly favorable for the appearance of violent thunderstorms. Sleet And in some cases, rarely but often, more hurricanes (or hurricanes) in recent years.

Temperature anomaly in June (by ecmwf)