Poland, the clash between Tusk and the right (defeat): confidence is at risk

Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski, a trusted friend of Kaczynski's, is resisting the attacks – thanks to his mandate that expires in 2026 – and is even asking the European Central Bank for help, having in fact followed the directives. The right-wing government, to the extent of significantly lowering interest rates in the middle of the election campaign, to try to give impetus to the economy, which goes against the trend of the whole world and, above all, without taking into account inflation is still above 10%.

Yesterday, the Constitutional Court, composed mostly of judges appointed by the Law and Justice Party, rejected Parliament’s initiative aimed at investigating the behavior of the Central Bank Governor – “subject to right-wing politics,” according to Tusk – by Parliament. President Julia Przylebska.

Investor concerns

“It is becoming increasingly clear that political risks will prevail in Poland for the foreseeable future,” says Tatha Goss, chief emerging markets economist at Commerzbank in London. He added that the markets have not yet properly assessed the risks.

On the basis of an agreement with the European Union, the Tusk government must, by the end of February, amend Polish rules in order to restore the independence of the judiciary and thus obtain the green light for European aid amounting to approximately 60 billion euros. But tensions are rising, putting Warsaw's credibility at risk. Former right-wing Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, now in the opposition, denounced the “frightening turn of events” and, paradoxically, called on Brussels to intervene in defense of democratic institutions. The current president of the Council, the centrist Simon Holonia, spoke of a “deep constitutional crisis.”

For Unicredit analysts, given “increasing political risks, with tensions between President Duda and the new government, investors could remain in a holding pattern until the uncertainty is resolved.”