I A mortgage with a variable interest rate He will come down. After a long upward trend, the first payment for 2024 will be lower than the average for the last quarter of 2023. This is a change in trend on the part of the sector. Euribor is known Which is essential in determining the value of the monthly numbers for variable real estate loans. In fact, the 3-month index reached a peak of 4% in November 2023 and then the downtrend began. Here's what could happen and what economists expect.
Lineage and the future
The three-month Euribor rate on December 29, 2023, the last working date of last year, stood at 3.89% while the one-month Euribor rate fell from 4% to 3.87%. The subtracted decrease, although small, will result in a savings Interesting what will happen in the next installment. as specified IlSole24Ore On a €200,000 mortgage with a maturity of 30 years, you would save €12 per month and €144 per year. Moreover I am Futures Discount the Eurobor by 2.3% at the end of 2024 and 2% at the end of 2025. According to investors' expectations, the ECB can reduce the cost of funds by 50% in the next two years, so the interest rate on deposits will rise from 4%. % to 2%.
In numerical terms, the savings of those who have to pay variable interest rates can grow slowly. Looking at the example mentioned earlier, i.e. a €200,000 30-year mortgage, if the ECB cuts interest rates by 50, 100 or 150 basis points by December 2024, there will be a reduction in interest rates. Ratta 59, 117 or 173 euros per month respectively. The monthly savings at the end of 2025 will reach 227 euros in one Expenses 3 thousand euros less. These effects will occur if the European Central Bank makes a clear decision on this issue. December 13 was an important date on which the Christine Lagarde Institute kept the cost of money unchanged.
Inflation and wage growth
Economists analyze two basic factors:Economic inflation And the Wage growth. Respectively, the former is declining significantly while the latter is rising in the balance. This news is interesting for borrowers with variable options because it is important to the decision to cut the interest rate. Depending on how these factors move, the EURBOR will change and so will the variable premiums. There are still many question marks to be resolved.
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