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Italian GDP revised upwards and new public debt records: Maziero estimates

Italian GDP revised upwards and new public debt records: Maziero estimates

Italy’s GDP will record positive but limited variations in the remaining three quarters of the year, recording a modest rate +0.8% in full 2024while the public debt of Bill Bice It will exceed 2900 billion Before May. These are the updated forecasts for Maziero Research, an independent financial research firm that conducts assessments of our country’s macroeconomic metrics. Here are all the details on the new forecast, which revises Q2 2024 GDP and a new debt record in March.

Italy’s GDP was revised upward in the second quarter and in all of 2024

Istat’s preliminary estimate for Italy’s GDP in the first quarter of 2024 is one Growth +0.3%: “An encouraging result that may still be affected by the effect of the Superbonus and the 50% construction tax deduction until the end of 2024” comments Mazziero Research.

“These tailwinds (for growth, not debt) are likely to continue, so we are raising our growth estimates for the second quarter of 2024.” dal +0.2% al +0.3%, while we reduced the third quarter from +0.3% to +0.2%, and the fourth quarter unchanged at -0.1% (top part of the table below). The calculation for all of 2024 brings us to one GDP estimate equals +0.8%, was +0.6% In previous estimates.

A new record high for public debt is on the horizon

“After debt hit a record high in February at $2.872 billion, another new record high is on the horizon in March.” It will lead to 2.894 billion“Slightly less than 2,900 billion, which in any case will be exceeded by May,” comments Maziero Research. “In June, the debt should be between 2,913 and 2,941 billion.”

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The debt graph below displays the official data published by the Bank of Italy with a red line, and continues in gray with values ​​estimated by Maziero Research.

I Debt to GDP ratio In the first quarter of 2024, it returned to growth of 137.8% from 137.1% at the end of the year (chart below). In this regard, we would like to point out that the debt-to-GDP ratio is measured on an annual basis and is only valid by calculating it at the end of the year. Our measurement uses the TTM (12 trailing months) method which consists of taking the last four quarters as if they were part of the same year. By doing so, rough estimates are provided which should be taken with caution,” concludes Mazzero Research.