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Forex – Dollar: Best session in a year after US CPI

Forex – Dollar: Best session in a year after US CPI


I am L US dollar Yesterday it hit its best session in a year (+1.05%), hitting its highest level in two months against the euro following March inflation data.

I am Consumer prices They rose +0.4% month-on-month in March, the same change as in February, slightly more than economists expected (+0.3%).

Net of volatile components, variances were unchanged, +0.3% sequentially from +0.4%, expected +0.3%.

At the economic level, year-on-year, the change was +3.5% for headline inflation, +3.8% for core inflation. The above two estimates are +3.4% and +3.7% respectively.

The greenback's outlook is strengthened on the back of higher US interest rates in the long run.

Also, I Minutes of the March meeting of the Central BankReleased Wednesday evening, US Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned about sticky inflation and have called for the maintenance of tighter monetary policy.

Traders cut their expectations for a rate cut in June to 17% (now zero) from 57% on Tuesday, according to CME tool Fedwatch. They now see the possibility of an interest rate cut at the September meeting, with a probability of 66%.

Fed funds futures cut the number of rate cuts in 2024 to less than two, or about 44 bps, compared with three or four cuts estimated a few weeks ago.

The dollar gained almost +3% against the euro following different macroeconomic dynamics.


Technical analysis. The euro-dollar has been moving sideways for about a year within a broad 1.05/1.1279 range. In recent weeks it has been returning…