For the 2024 US election, Donald Trump can count on 28 states (and one county in Maine) that are strongly on his side or leaning towards him, for a total of 272 electoral college votes, two votes above the magic threshold for victory (270). On the other hand, Joe Biden has 19 states, in addition to the District of Columbia (the capital), with a total of 225 votes, that is, 45 votes less than the quorum for success. That's the analysis by CNN, which drew its first “Road to 270” election map based on public and private polls, and conversations with election consultants, Republican and Democratic political operatives, members of Congress and political scientists. The radio considers three states uncertain (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska's congressional district) for a total of 41 electoral votes. If Biden wins it, he would still have to win back at least one of the three states he won in 2020 (Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada) that currently lean slightly toward Trump. “There will be endless focus on the national elections in the coming months, but it is the battle between each state for 270 electoral votes that will determine who will sit in the Oval Office next year,” the network explains, recalling that: In the last two presidential races, the Between the loser and the winner were less than 80,000 votes combined in three contested states, out of more than 130 to 155 million votes cast nationwide.
However, CNN warns that its map is “an exercise designed to capture the state of the race today. If we have learned anything from recent American political history it is that we should expect the unexpected. We don't even know for sure whether “Biden and Trump would have been the party’s major nominees in the fall.”
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