We can sleep peacefully at 99.94%, aAt least for the asteroid Bennu: This is the probability of being an orb Doesn’t hit our planet by 2300, Dice in NASA.
while China is already thinking about how to blow it up To reduce the probability to zero – unfortunately with missiles Danger of turning into a dangerous wreck Void – The US space agency has updated its estimates Using the data collected so far thanks Osiris Rex Mission, who has spent the past two years circling, studying, and even collecting samples from Bennu (Access on the earth From what I collected Scheduled for 2023) to better understand its path within our solar system.
frankly, The odds of an asteroid 518 meters in diameter colliding with our planet are slightly higher than previously thought, but remains completely neglected in absolute terms: we are talking about One in 1750 chances, or 0.06% by 2300, and we can rule out any possibility of an impact before 2135, when Bennu is closer to Earth than the Moon.
However, on that occasion, the collision risk will be practically nil – this new data is drawn from Osiris-Rex research, and will likely be refined as studies on the topic continue – while There will be a few more possibilities on September 24, 2182, On the day Bennu’s path will lead him to a 0.04% chance of hitting Earth. A scenario that does not look particularly tangere Davide Farnocchia del Center for Near-Earth Object Studies From NASA:
“I’m no more worried now than I was before the latest research results: the probability of a collision is still low and we still have plenty of time to observe the asteroid.”