The new round of ratings on Italian debt begins with confirmation. Late on Friday evening, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) announced its decision to keep opinion on Italy unchanged, with Triple B coinciding with a stable outlook. The decision confirms tonight’s expectations, also because the US agency raised expectations on the deadline for Fall 2020, and considered new adjustments unlikely.
Better estimates from Def
It is true that the economic and financing document just approved by the two chambers has approved a postponement until 2022 for the start of the Italian Maxi lawsuit, which is expected to reach 159.5% of GDP by the end of 2021 versus the 2020 close. But the agency proposes slightly better estimates than Government estimates, with growth of 4.7% (Defense goal is 4.5%) and deficit of 11.6% (Defense says 11, 8%).
Standard & Poor’s are reassured of the cost of debt refinancing (0.11% of GDP), which has been kept low by flat rates. Monetary policy in Frankfurt has also continued to be largely easing, as emphasized Thursday by the European Central Bank, and international bodies unanimously emphasized the need to maintain an expanded tone of economic policy.
Above all, the European Union and Italy are primarily on the eve of the launch of the Recovery and Resilience Facility with the National Recovery and Resilience Plan on Saturday morning being examined by the Cabinet with the reform package on justice, the Palestinian Authority, competition, simplification and taxation that seems to convince S&P analysts. . Our debt sustainability prospects are linked to the growth opportunities that could be achieved with 221.5 billion in six years provided by the plan.