The economic trend continues at two distinct speeds between the eurozone and the United States, thanks to the improvement reached in the first quarter in terms of vaccines. According to the data Eurostat, l ‘Eurozone Provided by -1,8% Year-on-year growth in the first three months of the year, as opposed to positive growth 0.4% USA. A recovery, driven by American, consumer (+ 10.7% per quarter) and public spending (+ 6.3%), while investments are still declining (-5%).
In economic terms (ie compared to the previous quarter), the eurozone lost 0.6% of GDP, while the United States rose 6.4%.
On the old continent, the economy is regressing at different speeds between different member states. “In France, the result is positive,” says the Oxford Economy, which expands by 0.4% of GDP. [+1,5% anno su anno], While in Italy and Spain
Economic activity was only partially affected, with GDP shrinking by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively [-1,4% e 4,3% anno su anno]”.
These are not particularly unpredictable results, according to the Oxford Economy, for which “the main negative surprise came from Germany, where GDP fell 1.7% in the quarter. [-3% anno su anno]”.
“Overall, the economy [europea] In the first quarter it proved less resilient to controls than it was last spring “, or less affected by locks,”
“And it could run at a normal level,” Oxford Economics wrote. “Looking ahead, we see a steady recovery this year, with strong recovery in the introduction of vaccines and a gradual easing of restrictions.”
Understanding: Reverse risks of recovery in Italy
Continuing factors lead us to think that an acceleration in Italian GDP is just around the corner, according to Indesa Sanpolo analysts. “We believe that the negative risks of our forecast of a positive return on GDP in the current quarter have been reduced; on the contrary, the risks are higher than the recovery expected in the second half of the year,” reads the bank’s report, citing the growing pace of the vaccine campaign and the “strengthening” of the recovery plan. Factors that give confidence for the next few months.