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Winter 2023-2024, the European Center’s premiere has just arrived

Winter 2023-2024, the European Center’s premiere has just arrived

Premiere of the European Center for Winter 2023/2024

Winter 2023-2024 The first projection for Central Europe has just arrived with the trend also for Italy.

As always, in order to identify such a long-term trend, we must rely on the so-called Seasonal forecastwhose mission is to predict, at the general level, what might happen, both in terms of climate (climate anomalies). Temperatures), and from the pluvium analogy (anomaly Rainfall).
In this regard, the first map we propose below refers to the latest update of the official European Centre, whose headquarters are located in Bologna: Well, it comes out of it quite clearly as i Calorific values Should be preserved Above average up to +2°C Over Russia and part of the Scandinavian Peninsula. What does this mean concretely? In fact, there is no “raw materials”, Or the gods Cold tanksprecisely in those places where freezing pulses capable of bringing cold waves and snow to the extreme southern latitudes of the European continent, up to our country, should be generated.

Temperature anomaly forecasts with the beginning of winter (Source: ECMWF)
But who is to blame for this situation? In recent months, a certain phenomenon has occurred, which experts call “El Nino“: This term refers to a Surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are rising Central and Eastern which frequently affect the climate of our planet, with different repercussions also in Europe and Italy even though we are talking about an event that occurs practically on the other side of the world.
In fact, current weather analyzes reveal a Fairly widespread heating Which moves from the tropical Pacific Ocean to the tropical Ocean, where positive values ​​​​are about 3 degrees Celsius compared to the normal rate. These are large anomalies, and they are also expected to become even worse in the coming months: this would lead to important changes in the circulation of the planetary atmosphere.
Thermal anomalies over the Pacific Ocean. The return of the El Niño phenomenon causes water temperatures to be higher than normal
Winter show in Italy – Looking at the past and statistics, when El Niño occurs, the effects on Europe, and therefore also on Italy, are manifested in increased temperatures with anomalies of around +1/1,5°C compared to historical averages already between December and January. However, the possibility of short but severe frosts, as has also happened in recent years, cannot be ruled out. Much will depend on fate Polar vortexAble to influence the movements of air masses across the entire continent.

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In short, for seasonal forecasts and weather indicators,The beginning of next winter It’s been predicted a lot light Above all, it is characterized by goodness It snowed a littleAt least in the plains and along the coasts.
We will see if these hypotheses will be confirmed in the upcoming updates or if there will be some changes. As we always remember, these are just general forecasts for the very long term They should not be understood as classic weather forecasts It is not useful for planning activities.