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Winter 2022, the NAO index is MAD, the trend for January and February is crazy »ILMETEO.it

Weather: Winter 2022, NAO index is MAD, trend for January and February is neutral

Winter 2022: the latest crazy newsThe official trend has just arrived, will be the second part ofWinter is out of the ordinary because we haven’t seen it in years, so crazy. The latest update confirms the presence of Two clear signs Which indicates that one is waiting for us winter season Almost at other times, it features Dynamic and snowy climate Even a low height. So there’s important news on the weather front for January and February: Now we’re telling you why.

In order to understand what the coming weeks and months will be like in Italy, we need to broaden our view of the entire hemisphere in order to shed light on Actors in play that will affect the weather. Well, compared to the past few years something of Abnormal The field of atmospheric pressure occurs in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. In particular the climate indicator number (North Atlantic Oscillation) highlights the change in pressure at sea level between Iceland and the Azores. This pressure difference appears to be very important for understanding the atmospheric and atmospheric conditions of the Atlantic Ocean Meteorological effects on Europe and thus on Italy. When the NAO index is positive (NAO +), the westerly winds prevail and thus bring moist air from the ocean to the continent (a lot of rain and a temperate climate).

the Ads We just came to the conclusion that after a very long time, the indicator has turned sternly to negative (NAO-) And now it sounds crazy: Westerly winds are weaker and weather conditions on a global scale favor the countercurrents of the area (from east to west), with possible hail breakouts from the east.

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In essence, this is a drastic change: this will favor the formation of a Strong high pressure field on North Atlantic. In this configuration, anti-region flow will be preferred and we will see intrusions From the frozen air coming straight from the North Pole.

interest crazy surprises They are not here. The instability of the polar vortex will suddenly increase the risk of frost waves stratified: By this term, in meteorology, we refer to the term anomalous and intense The warming of the Earth’s stratosphere, just over the Arctic, in order 20/30°C in a few days. Once activated, this heating gradually tends to expand towards the upper troposphere impact On the polar vortex (a large area of ​​low pressure in which all the hail that is constantly forming in the Arctic is surrounded): in fact, the lower sector is immediately forced to deform (dislocate the polar vortex) or even split into 2-3 distinct minimums (in this case we are talking about split from the polar vortex), which partially moves towards the middle latitudes, causing cold waves in the heart of the ancient continent and all the way to our country.

Let’s remember, for example, a file historical cold wave 1985, as well as 1929, 1956 and 1963, associated with stratospheric warming of this kind.

Here, therefore, can lead tofatal couple For the fate of the second part of winter, on one side the negative NAO and on the other hand a polar vortex literally in pieces.

As a result, in the next few days interaction Between the bitter cold from the east and the possibility of arrival depressions of northern europe It can lead to a somewhat unstable period. Given the time distance, which is still quite high, of course, we can’t go into details, but having said we can still say we can probably expect Very dynamic and cool stage, with risk Snowfall Even the plains and on the coasts in the case of the formation of depressions on the Mediterranean Sea.
But we will talk about it in our next updates.

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Negative NAO for the next few monthsNegative NAO for the next few months