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Will Liz Truss be able to continue?

Will Liz Truss be able to continue?

Following the decision announced by British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Friday to dismiss Treasury Secretary Kwasi Quarting (Economy Minister) and his abandonment of many of the tax reforms he started with him only a few weeks ago, many are wondering if and for how long he will be able to stay in government. The economic crisis that began after the announcement of Truss’ new economic and financial policies does not appear to be improving, the Conservative Party – which has collapsed in the opinion polls – is deeply divided and controversial, and today’s British newspapers are making headlines. Especially pessimistic about the future of this government.

The guardian He talks about Friday as “the one day out of chaos”, telegraph Truss is described as “holding on in power”, times she has written Who “struggles to survive”, the front page of Saturday daily mirrorwith a large picture of Truss, says “The time Expired”.

The problems are different for gears. The ambitious economic growth plan he studied and announced with Kwasi Quarting in September (which the two considered a kind of statement of their political vision) had disastrous effects on the British economy. force The Bank of England launched an extraordinary plan of interventions to protect the country’s financial stability by buying massive amounts of government bonds.

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In early October, Truss announced the first change of direction in its plan, ignoring the high-income tax cut, but two weeks later was forced to. Fire Kwarteng and effectively abandons his reform program. Jeremy Hunt, who was chosen to succeed Quarting, is a moderate supporter of the Conservative Party, and in his first interviews as Treasury Secretary he made it clear that he wanted to adopt a plan very different from Quarting’s plan and more in line with the previous one. Governments, based on fiscal responsibility and spending control.

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However, Hunt did not support Truss in his nomination as Conservative leader this summer, and the fact that he was chosen to the position at such a sensitive time in government is a very clear sign of Truss’ position in less than two months. After his appointment as prime minister and his political weakness.

At the press conference announcing Courting’s dismissal on Friday, Truss argued that he could effectively stay in government, to advance his political vision, but it is unclear how strongly he will be able to do so. If her cabinet ministers support her at the moment, the situation in the Conservative Party appears more complex: Truss’s supporters are disappointed with her transformation and the anti-PM faction appears to have gained strength in recent days, scolding them for having destroyed the party’s image and credibility in a few weeks .

Although many MPs and opinion leaders are talking frankly about the possibility of a replacement soon, this is in many ways that the gears will be replaced. It still seems an unlikely hypothesis. Replacing Truss as party leader means changing the Conservative rules that prevent you from discouraging a leader in his first year in office and then embarking on a lengthy electoral process that includes party members and does not guarantee the emergence of a better leader. If a gear is forced to resign, the process for replacing it will be the same.

Frustrating Truss with a vote in Parliament – which is technically possible – means a potential constitutional crisis and early elections. Truss may have to demand the dissolution of Parliament and new elections, but the Conservatives are at a very disadvantageous position in the polls at the moment and would not support going to the vote.

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Finally, the hypothesis put forward in recent days is that Truss is forced to resign but with an agreement for a unified candidate backed by the entire Conservative Party, to avoid a longer and more complicated selection process. But in this case, the party will need to overcome its big divisions to come to an agreement: it does not seem easy or obvious. Among the candidates named for a potential replacement for GearsHowever, there is the new Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt, and Truss’ opponent in the last party primaries, Richie. sonakbut also to Penny Mordaunt, Minister for Relations with Parliament.

It’s possible that Truss is now hoping that Kwarteng’s dismissal and Hunt’s appointment will help her get through the next few weeks, allowing her to regain some calm in the party and really start ruling. The next general election, if voting is not decided early, should be held in January 2025.