What are the consequences for GDP?

The possibility of the near futureItalian economy It remains encouraging. Your most recent estimates EurostatIt is the European Statistical Office.

According to Eurostat, during the second quarter of 2021, Spain and Italy recorded the best economic performance, with increase in GDP respectively 2.8% and 2.7%While Germany and France showed more moderate growth of 1.5% and 0.9%.

With the economic trend that appears to be recovering, traffic in the yellow zone from the regions of southern Italy can lead to The consequences for the GDP? Which?

growth forecast

Currently, growth for the current year is expected to be between 5% and 6% and to be around 4.2% through 2022. This means that as early as next year it could return to Liveli before covid-19.

However, some uncertainties remain associated withInfection trend, to the forecasts of the epidemic in the coming autumn, and above all to the effects that may result from the return to the yellow zone of the Italian regionsEconomie from the country.

Back to the yellow zone: What are the consequences for GDP

The Sicily The region is considered most at risk – with Sardinia and Calabria – to return to the yellow zone and if the increase in infection remains stable at current levels, a discoloration and restoration can be brought about. containment measures more restrictive.

It looks like a fileLatest GDP report Ignore this possibility. However, the consequences dictated by the hypothesis that some areas may soon return yellow area It would be important, even if for now it was an averted event, at least Until August 29.

In fact, Italy will remain All in the white area Until that date, but then – also in light of next fall – any restrictions on tourism or, in general, on production activities could imply a downward revision of growth estimates, with an impact onGDP trend Not indifferent.

National Recovery Plan Funds and Resilience

I The funds allocated to the regions In the south it is nearly 82 billion, according to the terms of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

With these funds, the goal is to reduce the historical infrastructure gap between northern and southern Italy, also in relation toDigital and Environmental Infrastructure Based on Public services. Now, the next step will be to verify in the field the effective implementation of the investments by the individual provinces.

Italy’s goal from 2021 to 2026

Goal Reducing the gap between North and South It is an indispensable condition for achieving one goal increase in GDP In light of the five-year period from 2021 to 2026 about 24% Compared to the absolute value of 2020.

According to data from the Ministry of the South and Regional Cohesion, the impact of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan on Italian GDP growth for appetizers 5 years It would be about 16%, versus 13% in the northern center. In 2019, southern Italy’s GDP represented 22% of its GDP.

In 2026, if the recovery and resilience plan is followed, it is estimated that GDP of the South It will make up 24% of the Italian percentage, which indicates the ability to reduce the gap that currently exists between the north and south of the peninsula.

Expected reforms for Italy

By the fall, in view of the funds received from the European Union, the delegated tax reform bill is expected, which although not included in the reforms Recovery and resilience planDue to its structure, it is considered by the European Commission to be of great importance for the purpose of tax reorganization.

The other focal point will be the following Budget maneuver. In this sense, the resistance of the majority supporting the Draghi government could be severely tested, also given the administrative positions in the fall and the imminent election of the next President of the Republic.