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Warm autumn / US crisis that could shake Europe too

Warm autumn / US crisis that could shake Europe too

If we in Italy experience very hot summers (from a meteorological and political point of view), we cannot say that America has been surpassed. With the economy, political disputes and midterm elections approaching, the internal debate in America is heating up and is expected to heat up between now and November.

Since the days of Bill Clinton (who coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid!” in history), let’s start with economic issues that have been decisive in determining electoral success (or failure). A presidential candidate. To date, overall, it cannot be argued that Biden has missed his goal of recovering the US economy after the pandemic, registering an excellent +6.2% in terms of GDP growth in 2021. But the outlook for this year has worsened quarter after quarter. : As of today, growth is likely to be 3.2%, according to the International Monetary Fund. Because? The main reason is inflation, which is the highest it has been in the last forty years, although it shows few signs of abating with gasoline prices dropping to four dollars a gallon after hitting five dollars. However, it is different from the inflation affecting Europe because it is also developing on the demand side, thanks to the enormous liquidity injection in response to the pandemic over the past two years, first by Trump and then by Biden. And because of rising prices of energy sources rather than supply shortages. The strong monetary tightening undertaken by the Federal Reserve in recent months through successive increases in interest rates may have an “emergency brake” effect that could save the US from a hard landing, but it will certainly contribute in the short term. Reduces growth opportunities.

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With midterm elections less than three months away, the cost could be to Biden and Democrats. Even in states where Democrats imposed themselves, such as California, Oregon, and Colorado, Republican candidates have recovered to date, making it possible for the Republican Party to win. This means that if both houses of Congress turn in favor of conservatives, Biden will become a “lame duck” after two years in office with many negative consequences. First, government action will be severely weakened at a critical moment internationally; And then the American political debate risks becoming even more “poisonous,” given the 2024 presidential election that will be strongly divisive and polarizing Trump.

The former president has not been ruled out of the race for the White House, in light of further events in the past few days that have seen FBI searches of his private home in Florida. The Attorney General’s (our Justice Minister’s) statements in full support of the FBI’s action and the strong reactions of the Republican Party forced Trump to support him at any cost this time, even after he led the polls in the conservative camp. Another trial before US judges, they are provoking an unprecedented institutional and political conflict in the US with unpredictable consequences and often not in favor of the Democratic Party.

In short, the next few months are going to be very eventful in America, and Joe Biden’s difficulties are likely to increase. From the international situation (the risk of escalating tensions with China after Nancy Pelosi’s surprise visit to Taiwan) to the domestic (an increasingly tough Trump, feeling cornered and raising the stakes even further), the White House’s move could be weakened. And we Europeans will also suffer the consequences, which promises to be complicated by the economic crisis, in winter’s view.

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After the “crazy” summer heat, expect a cooling down due to the energy crisis, if a way out of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not found, causing a slowdown in the global product supply chain. Many international crises from Asia, the Middle East and Africa and waves of migration towards our shores in greater numbers than in the past.

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