US Election 2022, pessimism: “will not last again”

There is a lack of confidence among Democrats ahead of the mid-term elections scheduled for November in the United States. Last summer, thanks to a wave of anger fueled by the Supreme Court’s ruling to strike down the constitutional right to abortion and a certain decline in gasoline prices, Democrats seemed to be able to avoid an electoral disaster for months. Prophesied for the Middle Ages. But now, just weeks after the Nov. 8 vote, the wind seems to have turned again, and polls are once again pointing Republicans on the rise and ahead in congressional elections.

In recent days, a CbsNews / YouGov poll gave the Gop a two-point lead, and then yesterday came a New York Times / Siena College poll that widened the gap further, with Republicans at 49% and Democrats at 45%. And troublingly, the poll indicates how independent registered women are now viewing Republicans after digesting the alarm and concern about abortion.

“I wish we had voted in August, and I think the comeback came too soon,” Third Way analyst Matt Bennett told Politico, underscoring how the current situation could not be more against the president’s party.

After weeks of declines, gas and gas prices have resumed their pace with inflation. Republicans have made this their campaign mission along with rising crime. Meanwhile, polling has started in many states.

Another longtime Dem strategist, Mark Langbach, who worked for Bernie Sanders’ campaign in 2016, believes there’s a timing error: “I’ve been doing this job for 30 years, and it’s always late September to early. October is when the games actually start,” he said, “so this time, this You can’t look at the numbers and say something is moving in favor of the Republicans.”

After positive results in special elections in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York, the landscape was starkly different until a few weeks ago, with new polls casting Democrats in despair. After months of slumping, Joe Biden’s approval ratings began to rise somewhat over the summer. After all, a victory on the abortion ballot in a strongly Republican state like Kansas makes us think that abortion could be a trump card in this tough election cycle.

But that’s not the case: According to a New York Times poll, abortion is an important issue for only 5% of voters, while for 44% it’s the economy, giving Republicans an advantage. A large margin. “I think we’ve had a good two weeks and everybody’s patting each other on the back that it’s enough to get over two years of disaster in everything”, is the clear self-criticism of one Dem strategist. “But nothing is really good: a tie in the Senate is the best we can hope for now, but the House is completely lost”, he then ruled.

Among Dem pollsters, there are those who remember how the new polls reflect politics and history — midterm elections are traditionally, with few exceptions, painful for the president’s party — and point out that what happened in August was a summer illusion. “Things have taken a traditional turn,” said Celinda Lake, who was Biden’s campaign adviser in 2020.

Barack Obama’s midterm elections in 2010 – when Republicans took the House – and 2014 – when they also took the Senate – were disastrous for the party. Democrats took back the House in Donald Trump’s midterm elections.