Tuesday, July 23, 2024

The wintry weather will start to wane in 2023


Well, in the context of the weather predict a probability of 76% That La Niña during the northern hemisphere winter (Dec-Feb) 2022-23, continuing to influence global climate, but with a preference for a Transition to neutral ENSO In February and April 2023 (57% probability).

It came before NOAAor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in its latest forecast update.

Since July 2022 negative temperature anomalies They are stationary in the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, between late October and early November, the weakening of the trade winds meant that the sea surface temperature was close to a minimum, so the trend was reversing, Initiating the transition to the ENSO Neutral phase which should mature between February and April 2023.

Therefore, we have the La Niña phenomenon in the process of gradually declining after its presence for the third consecutive winter. What a strange situation coinciding with the deterioration of the climate in Europe where the real Winter seems to be stopping.

How will La Niña affect the weather in winter? Both El Niño and La Niña influence global weather patterns, especially in North America, Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. The The effects are very marginal in EuropeApparently, where an oceanic component predominates, and in the Mediterranean Sea, the North African component that alternates with the oceanic component. Then there are crowd effects, but they have diminished in recent years Cold air from Siberia.

Nina forecast - winter weather that will start to wane in 2023Surface temperature anomalies - wintry weather starting to recede in 2023

In the tropics, La Niña Produce more or less climatic changes adverse to the El Niño phenomenon. For example, parts of Australia and Indonesia experience droughts during El Niño, but are usually wetter than normal during La Niña. In fact, there have been Bible floods in Australia for the second year. More than 2000mm of rain fell in Sydney in 2021.

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Even the United States affected by this climate behavior index. In addition to the Horn of Africa, where millions of people suffer from water shortages and hunger. This region is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years, with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia hardest hit.

La Niña does not appear to have direct effects on the dynamics of the polar vortex, as well as ocean currents towards southern and northern Europe. However, its effects are global in some respects It also affects our climate.

La Niña exacerbates extreme weather conditions on our planetalready affected by climate change. The presence of this behavior indicator should not significantly lead to anything new for this winter, which it is for the time being Europe will have mitigationespecially in the central and southern part as a result of the reckless frost wave in the United States and Canada.

But the situation may change in Januarybut we are too far away to be sure, even if seasonal mathematical models predict sudden changes in weather and climate.


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