Saturday, July 20, 2024

The super bonus, $100 billion in real costs to the state and $45 billion in advance: the Bank of Italy account

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The super-reward reveals its true cost: the bubble is ready to burst even if its effects on the economy have been clear for some time. While the European Commission opens a Excessive disability proceduresThe new data confirms concerns associated with the well-known support for home renovations and, more generally, with the building bonus system. For Bankitalia, the net cost of rewards is €100 billion. They each earn about 1,700 euros at the moment. In the end, they did not pay for themselves as Giuseppe Conte said: for every point of GDP generated there were three points of spending. The economic effects have also been confirmed once again by the Parliamentary Budget Office, and in the meantime thousands of companies are closing their doors: this means that the situation could get worse.

What is the actual cost of the state’s super bonus: new data from the Bank of Italy

Within two years, construction bonuses – including interface bonuses and super bonuses – cost the state €170 billion. Of these, according to Latest ENA data, 122.7 billion related to the super bonus. Among supporters of the measure, such as Giuseppe Conte who envisioned it with the 5 Star Movement, the idea that these renovations would pay for themselves has always been popular.

new Study of the Bank of Italy He sees it differently: “The benefits to the economy as a whole in terms of value added were less than the costs incurred by the concessions.” This means that the costs exceeded the benefits introduced in the second half of 2020.” With the aim of stimulating the construction sector through targeted investments. Initially, the amount of work started pushed the GDP higher, which contributed to the economic recovery in Post-pandemic period.

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The problem is that spending has far exceeded the resulting growth. According to economists’ estimates, in the biennium 2021-2023, interface bonuses and super bonuses brought between 2.6 and 3.4 points of GDP out of a total 13.5 points of growth, a contribution of between 20 and 25 percent. But if we compare these benefits to total spending of $170 billion, we find that every point of GDP gained costs three. This means that the net cost of the Super Bonuses and Front Bonuses was €100 billion, i.e. approximately €1,700 each. Conte said there would be 88.

The problems arrived after the initial “fire”: in 2023 “the deficit was higher than the 5.3 percent expected in Nadif estimates as of last September, due, above all, to the effects of the super premium,” we read in the bank’s latest annual report. theParliamentary Budget Office To Parliament, figures that led to the opening of infringement proceedings by the European Union Commission against Italy. But these problems will remain due to the amount of tax breaks that will be eliminated, so “unexpected effects cannot be ruled out in light of what has happened in recent years.”

The “dead weight” of 45 billion was abandoned

There is a good share of wasted investment in Superbonus spending. “It is estimated that about a quarter of expenditures related to supported investments – more than €45 billion – could have been implemented even in the absence of incentives.” This means that €45 billion of renovation work could have been carried out regardless of the construction bonuses.

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€38 million for a single building: the latest super bonus craze

In other words, a quarter of the total expenditure should be considered a “critical loss,” as defined by Bankitalia researchers. This happened because anyone can access the measurement. The most recent example came with Pnrr funds allocated to building bonuses: 13.7 billion of which, half of which was used for the construction of 46,922 homes. The rest went to residential units, with the record intervention amounting to more than 38 million euros to build a building in Mezzana, a town of 890 inhabitants in the province of Trento.

Companies that were born and died with Superbonus: a map of the crisis

After the initial burst, the Superbonus bubble burst, specifically in the sector that was initially driving the economy. Nearly 11,000 construction companies closed. They started operating at the end of 2020 and then closed it between 2022 and 2023. The trend is clear over time, as can be seen from the chart below from Today.it starting with InfoCamere’s processing of data from the commercial register.

Since the birth of Superbonus, in mid-2020, as the months pass, more and more companies have gone out of business. The trend shown in the graph is not random: at the end of 2022 closed companies exceeded 1,700, and then reached more than 3,000 exits at the beginning of 2023: these are precisely the months in which the regulations imposed on the companies carrying out the work become more stringent. strict . In Lazio alone there were 1,171 of them 802 Rome. Closings then continue in 2023 until they reach 10,924 terminations. Companies that were born and died with Superbonus.

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