The government’s plan for the European Union: 1% growth and a deficit of less than 3% in 2027

The 2024 accounts appear to be going much better than expected. Thanks to the revision of GDP, but above all thanks to the good performance of tax revenues, It is possible that the deficit this year will fall far below expectations.
The final figures for the structural budget plan that will be approved by the Council of Ministers today are being verified, but the deficit this year is…It could stop at 3.7% compared to the 4.3% expected in April. Thanks to growth, which is expected to rise from 1% this year to 1.2% in the next two years, according to rumors that evening, the deficit will return to well below 3% of GDP as early as 2026. It makes tasks easier for the government only to a certain extent.

Debts and revenues

A half-point reduction per year for ’25 and ’26 is mandatory, however What is worrying is the trend that the debt will grow over the next two years, compared to current levels, due to offsetting the 110% tax breaks.. In any case, the deficit could decline to about 2.7% of GDP in 2026. The increased tax revenues this year, which we understand will not be used at this stage, are largely structural and will serve to cover Confirmation of reduction in tax wedge and IRBV exemption. Yesterday, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Federico Freni, explained that the government wants to provide stable coverage for these two measures for at least five years, which is the duration of the plan. theThe budget maneuver will confirm facilities for recruitment companies, revaluation of pensions (full for the lowest pensions), and measures to encourage working mothers..

Public sector inflation rebounds

For public contracts, a rebound in inflation will be ensured, and thus a 2% increase.The Ministry of Finance will work to expedite the procedures for disbursing end-of-service compensation, which is monitored by the Council. Remaining in employment on a voluntary basis is also being considered for public sector workers who have reached pension requirements. There will also be more funding for health care. In discussion with the regions on the PSB, the possibility of additional funding from the Health Fund of approximately $1 billion arosenet contract renewal amounts (among other things, the government is considering a rule to limit the professional liability of doctors).

The essence of additional profits

No revenue is expected from the contribution required by the government from companies that have made a lot of profits (banking, insurance, pharmaceuticals, energy, defence). The ways in which this contribution may be definitive are not yet clear. Banks are ready to boost liquidity, but at least for other sectors there is a need to find different paths.
Today, the Council of Ministers will also launch the reform of the Flows Decree. Foreign labor applications will be submitted in several click days annually, for different production sectors. There will be limits to the requests that companies can submit, and conflicting requests will be excluded. In 1923, only 17 thousand employment contracts were concluded, out of 74 thousand entries.

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