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Superbonus: “much lower net cost to the state thanks to the multiplier effect”

The technical reports that accompanied the release of the 110% premium bonus greatly underestimated the financial implications of this action. That’s the crux of the research just published by the Council and Institute of National Accountants. From the data already collected, the measure, although it turns out to be much more expensive than expected, has a financial return for the public treasury much higher than expected, to which must be added the significant positive effects on employment and income of households and firms.

According to the research, which studies the two-year period 2020-2021, for one euro of the general fiscal output in terms of tax breaks or deductions recognized for taxpayers, thanks to the multiplier effects in economic terms, a return of 43.3 cents. Thus, the net cost to state is equal to 56.7 cents.

alternative model

The document, in fact, offers an alternative model for evaluating the positive effects of the super reward in terms of higher tax revenue. The main hypothesis, on the basis of the model, is that to account for the higher income generated by the economy and, therefore, the higher revenue collected by the country, the full multiplier effect of the additional expenditure generated by the 110% super bonus has to be taken into account and, above all, of the possibility of choosing discount On consideration and assignment of credit, as an alternative to deduction in advertising.

broad influence

From this point on, total sponsored spending for the whole of 2021 would have been estimated at just over 55 billion euros, of which around 27 billion was attributable to regular bonuses and 28.3 billion to 110% super bonuses. The research shows that the total cost to the state for 2021 alone was actually more than €21 billion higher than expected, while the induced tax impact, which mimics higher state revenues, is roughly €12 billion. euros, thus setting an additional net cost to the state of approximately €9.5 billion.

The extraordinary expansionary impact of the 110% super bonus in 2021 – an effect that is 15% of overall growth – translated into an equally extraordinary propulsive effect on tax revenue which, net of baseline spending, i.e. bonus-building spending that was It would have anyway, even without the 110% super bonus, generated 43.3 eurocents higher revenues for every euro spent by the country. Data for 2022 appears to indicate an expansion of up to three times what happened in 2021.