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Scorching seas and sudden thunderstorms in the first new giveaway, what to expect?

Scorching seas and sudden thunderstorms in the first new giveaway, what to expect?

The waters of the Tyrrhenian Sea around Messina and the Aeolian Islands reached +29 ° C, the same temperature as the Gulf of Mexico.

Messina – Just a month ago we talked about this “Element”In reference to the high temperatures in the surface waters of the seas, especially in the Tyrrhenian Sea. day of Monday August 1, 2022 We had a clue.

The entry of more temperate air from the northwest was enough to raise the bubble of hot and humid air upward (with the help of the Peloritani), preexisting above the surface of the Tyrrhenian Sea, and generating a solitary storm from the expanse of the sea, in front of Ortoliuzzo and Villafranca Tirrena, bypassing the Peloritani, and reaching the city abruptly .

All in the absence of turbulence and in a slightly unstable atmosphere, but only in the lower layers (instability of the surface of the air mass). Let’s think with all this “energy” available to the atmosphere what would happen to cross the first real Atlantic turbulence of the season, or to fall slightly cooler air at high altitude (in a free weather).

Here is the radar impact of the sea storm that affected this morning the territory of Villafranca Tirina and the city of Strait. Note the extreme localization of phenotypes along the northern edge of the Peluritani.

But why are the seas so warm?

The intense and persistent heat of these weeks has caused the surface waters of the seas surrounding the peninsula to warm up. The most significant thermal increases are found, during the weekend, in the lower center of the Tyrrhenian, Adriatic and Lower Ionian, where at some points +29°C +30°C.

In recent days, in the stretch of sea around the Aeolian Islands, the sea surface temperature has also exceeded +30°C. A sub-tropical African promontory that for several days encompassed the central basin of the Mediterranean, in addition to making the sun’s rays nearly constant and long throughout the day, would help keep the seas nearly calm or at least move away from shore through poor or almost completely absent ventilation in the lower layers.

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Sea temperatures today. Values ​​above +29 °C are reached across a wide range from the lower Tyrrhenian Sea, up to the coasts of Messina and the area just north of the Strait of Messina. We are talking about temperatures similar to those measured in the Gulf of Mexico or in the tropical Pacific Ocean

The sea, which remained calm, under the scorching July sun, stored more heat. This has identified the significant increase in temperature, especially along the Adriatic Basin, which are shallower more susceptible to these abrupt thermal changes.

What will be the consequences in the atmosphere?

It should be noted that the hot water layer is only the surface layer (let’s talk about it Film heating.) and not the entire column from the sea floor to the surface. This means that even enhanced surface ventilation, as often happens with an inlet “Mistral”can produce cooling due to the mixing of water masses resulting from the phenomenon“Bottom” (seawater moving water on the surface, with cold water rising from the bottom).

All this huge amount of “potential energy” Accumulated in recent months will not necessarily lead to the emergence of extreme weather events, such as violent storms or any flood events.

But what is certain is that with these surface temperatures, at the first transit of the Atlantic Ocean Front system, followed by the cooler ocean air, all this “potential energy”represented by warm sea water (in this case we will talk about it “Thermal energy”), will be converted to “Kinetic energy”, By forming sudden and violent convective movements, resulting in strong thunderstorms, circular phenomena, gusts of wind and very strong storms.

Satellite image from the morning of Monday, August 1, 2022, shows the isolated storm in action over the Strait of Messina

Autumn is at risk of extreme weather events

With the entry of the first Atlantic sacks and the development of the deep annular formation in the Mediterranean basin, In the fallSeason of extreme weather events. It also often occurs in recent months, especially between the Ligurian Sea, the Tyrrhenian Sea, and the seas around Sardinia and Sicily.

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For example, the development of secondary annular formation in the Ligurian Sea or the Corsican Sea often results in intense aeration of the southern quadrants in the lower layers (Sirocco, Ostro), with the formation of “meeting lines” In the sea that generates an “intensive convection” effect, which helps to develop the fearsome “V-shaped storm.