The end of the year is always the time for the balance sheet, in all sectors, and therefore also for portfolios. However, as L’Economia de Il Corriere della Sera has written, the preparation of balance sheets can be misleading, particularly in the case of long-term investments. Not to mention that 2022 was a very complicated year from many points of view: 10 thousand euros invested at the beginning of the year in global stocks would today be just under 9 thousand euros.
The same amount, allocated to stocks in the US technology sector, would have lost a quarter of its value, without regard to the impact of inflation.
The bond sector is also bad: someone who invested €10,000 in IGBs on January 1 will find themselves €1,000 less in their account today. The only positive returns came from investing in oil and gold. Thus, the question is whether the storm that hit the markets in 2022 is about to pass or if the general state of alert remains.
“Rising interest rates, which have been detrimental to the markets this year, have created the conditions for building stronger portfolios,” said Antonio Cafarero, chief investment officer of Generali Insurance AM. In spite of everything, the stock markets will remain volatile for several more months.
In general, on the profit front, the risk of disappointment is greater in the United States than in Europe. Stock markets are likely to start the new year with a big sideways movement. Therefore, it is better to maintain a defensive stance, favoring companies with little debt, which in 2022 have defended their margins well and have continuity in dividend payments.” Many analysts therefore seem more confident on the bond issue. “The inflation genius is out of the bottle.” , and even if the trend is down from an average of 8.2% in 2022 to 5.4% next year, in Italy (Istat estimates), the weight of indexed securities, within the income component, should be much higher than in Past: in the range of 30/40% ”cafarero concluded.
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