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Pensions, the risk of stopping 3 early exits: without a new law in 2023 we will return to Fornero

Pensions, the risk of stopping 3 early exits: without a new law in 2023 we will return to Fornero

Not more than two months. Once the new center-right government is sworn in by the head of state and receives the confidence of parliament, it will have a short period of time to decide how to handle the short sabbatical shortcut. year. From January 1, 2023 the full version to the Fornero Law and the simultaneous mining of public accounts prompted by the need to adjust pension payments presents itself with the risk of a new “staircase” fueled by unions. The rush of inflation. Without new interventions, in the transition between 2022 and the new year, three initial exit channels will be closed in one fell swoop: quota 102, female preference and social monkey. At the same time. A mandatory revaluation of treatment is already expected, which will increase pension spending by 7.9% compared to this year.

Last race at the end of the year: Kota 102 stops with less appeal

December 31 will mark the end of the annual quota 102 experience, the possibility of early retirement with a minimum age of 64 and 38 contributions, which was introduced by the recent budget law at the end of the three-year trial of quota 100 A. The move, initiated by the Draghi government, does not seem to have met with much interest from workers: around 10,000 people should leave by the end of the year, far from the 16,800 retirements indicated by the executive. Technical report of maneuver. On December 31, two other multi-extended retirement vehicles will complete their journey: Lady Will and Social Monkey.

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Unions alert: “ladder” is coming, table with government immediately

For CGIL, CISL and UIL, the simultaneous closure of these three exit channels will increase the old-age requirement from 100 (later 102 with 64) to 67 in the retirement age limit of 62 years. In other words, although the retirement age set by the Fornero reform has always been the same, a new “ladder” will operate. Quota 102 is, in fact, nothing more than an insult to female preference and social ape. But the trade unions are firm in their thesis: “We have to make an agreement with the new government by next December, because the 102 quota expires and there is a 5-year staircase from January 1, which brings the elderly to 67 years old. », argues Luigi Sparra, president of the CISL. Also CGIL and UIL The General Secretaries of are basically on the same line, so the league should immediately open the way for the dear quota of 41 or guarantee everyone with 62 years.

Mining in accounts

Both of the solutions proposed by the unions, at least on paper, are inconsistent with the current state of the public accounts, which are under pressure from the progressive deterioration of the economy. Also, due to the indexation of pension checks, part of which was planned by the aid decree and must be triggered in January after the “limited” advance, pension costs will rise by less than 24 billion next year. ‘Acceptance of Quota 41 and extension of female option and social monkey will further increase to nearly 30 billion. 4 billion in the first year alone to guarantee outbound travel with 41 years of payments regardless of age, according to INPS estimates. The cost to the unions and the league will not exceed 1.3-1.4 billion, since the actual number of workers using this measure will be significantly lower than the potential. However, the State General Accounting Office will still be called upon to calculate the required financial insurance.

Between 2018 and 2024, the expenditure-GDP ratio ranged from 15.2 to 16.4%.

In light of the difficult economic environment and the delicate situation of public finances, with the absolute need to shore up households and businesses against high bills, it highlights that early retirement cannot be the way forward in the immediate future. Carlo Bonomy. The same technocrats at the Ministry of Economy have repeatedly warned of the danger represented by the continued rise in pension costs, which Brussels is closely monitoring. The pension expenditure-GDP ratio will increase from 15.7% in 2022 to 16.2% in 2023 and 16.4% in 2024. This was highlighted recently by the State General Accounts Office by accounting for the two-year period 2023-2024. Significantly lower than the index rate of the GDP deflator and above the high level of the index (may be due to the rise in the inflation rate expected from the end of 2021 until 2023) “, the rate of domestic product “increases significantly , reaching 16.4% at the end of the two-year period (the level of 2018 1.2 percentage points)”. This level will basically be maintained till 2030.