Italy’s GDP will grow to 4.5% in 2021, in parallel with the coronavirus vaccination campaign, and will remain sustainable at 4.4% in 2022: this is what emerges from the OECD economic perspective presented today in Paris.
Italy’s GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels for 2019 in the second half of 2022, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with the determination that consumption will resume with the gradual lifting of restrictive measures against the Coronavirus. Moreover, for the OECD, the “high” levels of savings currently recorded will gradually decline. New jobs, especially for the low-skilled, women and youth, will only return in 2022, ”the OECD defines. The Paris-based international agency predicts an unemployment rate of 9.8% in 2021 and 9, and 7% in 2022. As for debt, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, it will drop from 159.6% in 2021 to 157.2% in 2022.
In Italy, “the epidemic has been brought under control thanks to the containment measures” adopted by the government: this is what we read in the fact sheet devoted to Italy in “OECD Prospects”, presented today in Paris, in which the government is participating. Public as “essential to support greater growth.” “The government – reminds the International Authority for Economic Cooperation and Development – has thus loosened restrictions, allowing restaurants, museums and secondary schools to reopen” and now “aims to vaccinate 80% of the population (41, 5 million people) by September 2021.”
According to the Paris-based agency, it will also be necessary, in the medium term, to increase public spending to support growth and simplify taxes. In addition – the OECD continues – a more coordinated approach to taxation and use of funds could help the European Union accelerate the transition to a “greener” economy. The document also suggests that “improving the content and quality of training provided to employees and the unemployed will reduce unemployment” and encourage “a gradual transition to better-paying jobs, especially for vulnerable groups such as women and youth.
“Simpler and less weighty regulation, which stimulates the competition game, especially in the service sector, will push employment and investment upwards”: this is what we read in the factsheet dedicated to Italy on OECD Economic Perspectives.
The Italian government intends to “continue to implement an expansionary budget policy for a certain period”, and to increase the deficit in 2021 compared to 2020, before gradually returning to below the 3% threshold in 2025. “An increase in expenditures related to investments aimed at completing the plan funds. Recovery from the next generation of the European Union. ”The OECD continues“ The budget also includes a generous incentive to create jobs and invest in the private sector. ”According to projections by the OECD,“ public investment should rise to 3.1% of GDP in 2022 with a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 160% in 2021. ”To reduce the level of debt in the medium term, the OECD continues,“ The authorities will mainly rely on accelerating growth, which depends in part on Rapid deployment of projected funds under the “Next Generation European Union” “Effective implementation of these measures – he warned the OECD – is crucial to the success of the government’s recovery plan.”
Eurozone GDP will grow by 4.3% in 2021 and then rise further to 4.4% in 2022. Global GDP will grow by 5.8% in 2021 and then slow to + 4.4% in 2022. For the G20, the number is 6.3%, respectively, and 4.7%, while the average of the OECD countries will go from 5.3% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2022.