January, the polar vortex after the New Year may give us many surprises, situation » ILMETEO.it

Latest updates on Polar VortexThe fate of the 2022/2023 winter could be marred by the polar vortex. In the past, cold and snow waves were common in winter and weather conditions were often driven by the behavior and evolution of this basic atmospheric figure.
Well, according to the latest updates of major climate indices, There may be a lot of surprises after the New Year, let’s say from Epiphany 2023.

However, to better understand what we are talking about, let’s build an example. The polar vortex (polar vortex in English) It is a strong cyclonic system We can imagine together A large area of ​​low pressureEverything is covered by then Cold air constantly forms over arctic ice And it finds its expression through depression centers directed towards the precursors to the south (so to Italy). Bad weather And a severe Temperature drop.

However, the behavior of the polar vortex is not always the same.
If it is Strong and compact Cold is confined to the North Pole, which is why stable weather with high pressure and moderate winds is expected in Italy. Self Should go instead In crisisAs happened for example in 2012 or 2018, the effects can be multiple, high or low: it can actually be divided into two or more parts. (split), moves with a cargo of cold unstable air towards the south. When it splits or weakens in this way, anomalies Frost waves It will grow exponentially and reach our country too. The reason for the splitting of the polar vortex should be sought in the arrival of solid warm currents in the upper atmosphere, as it is technically called Stratwarming (Strospheric Warming).

situation – As we can see from the diagram below, These days The polar vortex It turns out Super compact and situated in its natural position above the North Pole and no particular developments are expected in the short term, which is why in all probability we will continue to have stable weather conditions. Temperature above average climate Almost all of our country until the end of 2022, except for a quick transient blitz.The polar vortex is compact and located in its natural location: the North Pole
Perspectives – Things may change from mid-January When a temporary displacement of the vortex from its usual place has effects in a good part of Italy. It cannot be dismissed for nowDescending ice from the Arctic Circle is irritating (by the end of next month), the result will be returned Snow to a very low degree.

So winter may start a bit late. We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks, always trying to monitor what’s happening at high latitudes, not just the dynamics in our country.
As has often happened in past cold seasons, the second part of winter and especially the month FebruaryThat may change Explodes with Snow episodes down to very low altitudes Or even Plain.