Here are the risks of underestimating the epidemic

The Guardian has confirmed Risks that many countries United State First, they run Minimizing the omicron Overall, the potential for Covid-19 to affect civilian life remains high.

Pausing from day to day to pay attention to the rules that have so far helped us out of the critical phase is detrimental, as endorsed by American experts and also by Professor Roberto Cauda, ​​Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gemelli Dispensary, Auditor of Covid Parameters for Government and Scientific Adviser to the Agency European Pharmaceuticals (EMA).

Acting lightly, despite the general impression that the worst is over, does not help prevent the formation of new variables And the relative peak re-infection. Let’s review the origins of the risks they are exposed to in various global realities.

All loopholes in the system

Although the Italian context is vastly different and we cannot fully model American difficulties, the weaknesses of Washington and the federal states should make us reflect overseas as well.

In particular, the Guardian, to assess the situation, consulted Dennis Nash, an eminent professor of epidemiology at the City University of New York’s School of Public Health.

The latest studies conducted by the professor on the epidemiological trend in New York, have revealed many studies Defects in the monitoring system from all over the United States. In the Big Apple alone “the number of official cases appears to underestimate the true burden of infection by about 30 times, which is quite a surprise.”

So the first problem is the gaps in the number of cases. In fact, according to the teacher, New Yorkers are likely to have better access to testing than most of the country, which means that global underestimation could be worse elsewhere:

“It’s very concerning. To me, that means that our ability to really understand and anticipate the virus has been undermined.”

One reason for this lack of traceability is, as in Italy, “huge disheartened“To a lot of people To get tested for covid. This phenomenon is validated by Lara Germanos, MD, a family physician and clinical instructor at Harvard Medical School. According to Germanos, who deplores the harmful effect of an ongoing “extreme reassurance campaign” coming from the skeptical sector of the American media. Many are convinced that the virus is mild and will not affect their lives, but this is a gamble. The onset of mild symptoms is often underestimated and mild illness is often confused with other reactions. But it is not enough to stay home from work and school, it is necessary to check through tests and leave a trace for the competent authorities. The reports are key because, as we’ve already seen from 2020 to this segment, there are multiple types of responses to the virus, and in addition, checking that those who tested positive stay in quarantine will avoid further spread. In short, without correct data on the true extent of Covid, it is difficult to protect yourself and prevent new spikes from occurring.

Finally, there is an aspect that is very likely to negatively affect the emergence of new variants:the summer. To talk about it is Professor Cauda alla Stampa.it:

“Although the SARS-CoV-2 virus will likely continue to circulate in the coming months, all conditions are certainly set for next summer to be safe and not very different from the pre-pandemic situation. Provided that we each live responsibly, realizing that we have not We are yet to come out of the pandemic, which is why it is important, regardless of legal obligations, that we continue to be vigilant, especially in risky situations, such as staying indoors and crowded spaces, on public transportation.”

The more individuals exposed to situations with a high risk of infection, the higher the risk of transmission of general mutations. Then when the obligations fall, the problem becomes even greater because the danger is to recklessly reach for “everything is free”. Covid should never disturb our lives again, but some kind of caution should always be maintained.

Underestimating the pandemic generates new variables

Professor Cauda also began an interview with the press as follows:

“In some countries, the United States, China, Portugal and Spain, there is an increase in cases that may be due in part to the subsequent entry of the Omicron variant in these countries and, in the case of the United States, to the BA2 subvariable .12.1.”

This makes us understand how the real danger is not the risk of minor injury but the risk of injury Spread of new variables Potentially less controllable than in the series could continue to feed the global curve.

Hence another risk factor is re-infection as “we are not at a point where we can confidently say that each of these new mutations in variants will not lead to a wave of deaths.”

In other words, the teacher always says:

“Just deciding that it is appropriate for everyone to be infected three or four times a year in the future with a new virus whose effects we do not fully understand is a huge and huge gamble. We simply do not know what Covid could bring in the future … We are playing with fire » .

The climate of fatigue and the prevailing attitude of intolerance towards the severe restrictions that stood in these two years between individual freedom and public health and safety are not phenomena that one can turn a blind eye to. Raising awareness of the difficulty of continuing the path toward normalcy smoothly and suddenly is more necessary than ever.