GDP to +3.9% in 2022, exceeding government estimates – Economy

In 2022, Italian GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 3.9% compared to 2021. This was announced by Istat based on preliminary estimates, specifying that in 2022 there were three fewer working days than in 2021. That’s a higher number than the government’s estimate from Nadef, which indicated GDP growth of 3.7% for last year. The Institute of Statistics indicates that the results of the annual national accounts for 2022 will be released on March 1, while the quarterly results, corresponding to the new annual data, will be presented on March 3.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, Italian GDP decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and grew by 1.7% in trend. This is a reflection
The trend compared to the cyclical +0.5% recorded in the third quarter and seven consecutive quarters of growth. The cyclical change in the quarter, Istat emphasizes, is a combination of a decline in value added both in the agricultural, forestry and fishing sector, and in the industrial sector, while services show growth. On the demand side, there is a negative contribution from the national component (gross inventory) and a positive contribution from the net foreign component.

The growth gained for 2023, which could be achieved – based on the direction of 2022 – if all quarters of this year recorded zero change in GDP, is 0.4%. Forecasts in the Nadef report developed by Meloni’s government at the beginning of November point to a 0.6% GDP increase for the year.

In the fourth quarter of last year, GDP growth in 19 countries of the eurozone slowed down again: the increase was equal to 0.1% compared to 0.3% in the previous quarter. In the European Union as a whole, growth has been equal to zero. This was announced by Eurostat based on first flash estimates. According to this data, Italy’s GDP fell by 0.1% in the October-December period. Last year as a whole, GDP growth was 3.5% in the eurozone and 3.6% in the EU as a whole.