get one A crucial week for Europefacing two great unknowns, interconnected, able to set the pace for the coming months. there European Central Bank meeting Tomorrow he will decree an end to zero rates and generate a new anti-proliferation tool, but today is a result Confidence in the Draghi government It will give an important indication of Italy’s credibility, as well as influence the decisions that will be made in Frankfurt.
The European Central Bank is ready to bid farewell to the era of zero interest rates
The central bank led by Christine Lagarde will certainly announce a Refinement at a borrowing cost of 25 basis pointsheralded the end of the era of zero rates, even in Many are betting on a sharper 50 basis point increaseespecially after New record for inflationwhich fell at a trend rate of 8.6% in June.
A bigger increase would certainly help cool hyperinflation, but it would have The effect of cold showers on growthwhich the European Union cannot afford, and it faces a major energy and political crisis. The growth that is already struggling, while the growth of inflation, which is tied strictly to energy cost and not to wages, is not so worrisome, as in the United States.
For this reason, a quarter-point increase seems more appropriate than a steeper intervention. A signal that will lead to increases that will bring prices up to 1.5% by the end of the year.
Anti-Proliferation Shield and “Political” Risks
The new anti-spread shield is gaining more interest Anti-fragmentation tool It aims to counteract the unexplained increase in government bond yields, particularly those of countries with higher speculative debt. A tool that looks specifically designed for Italian BTPs, which was Often the subject of speculation.
It will be the outline of the new tool conditional Also from Italian events: from Draghi’s period in government and its numberBecause new crises are not excluded with the approach of the elections.
Frankfurt bankers line is not unanimous and German austerity proposal It indicates that its activation must be of an exceptional nature and be bound by strict conditions. A method like any other means of self-protection, especially in a moment like this, when the Draghi government is in the balance.
The dragon is at stake
Prime Minister Mario Draghi will introduce himself to the circles to start a Trust Check. The day starts at 9.30 with the Prime Minister’s statements in the Senate, to vote around 19.30. Tomorrow it will be the turn of the hall.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the vote, Draghi met with President Sergio Mattarella and leader of the Democratic Party Enrico Letta and the center-right, which confirms confidence in the prime minister, but excludes the “unreliable” Sinquistel. Movement, for its part, is awaiting Draghi’s speech, to understand whether it will provide an answer to at least some of the nine suggestions made by Giuseppe Conte, but the head of the M5s in the room, David Crippa, already appears to be open to a renewed confidence.
Rating agencies warning
Waiting for something to move in the political arena, the rating agencies Already warned that a Dragy Pace may not solve the problem Political stability, as it is destined to conflict with the increasingly ambitious expectations of the parties as elections approach.
Moody’s and Fitch Explain it new challenges Appear in front of the executive with Budget Law 2023 The policies needed to open Third Batch of PNRRNot to mention the ability to manage a gas emergency in the fall.
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