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Covid, when will the epidemic end according to the math: prediction

Covid, when will the epidemic end according to the math: prediction

When will the epidemic end? During the last period they chased each other Forecasting And assumptions about the alleged history of Return to normal. To these, another one based on mathematics is now being added.

Estimation has been carried out before Zoe McClaren, Associate Professor and Health Economist at the University of Maryland in Baltimore County, who published the editorial in The New York TimesExpect it now Don’t miss too much At the end of the nightmare that we have been living for more than a year.

When will the epidemic end? Mathematical prediction

According to the expert, “Understanding the exponential dynamics makes it easy to know what to expect in the next phase of the epidemic.”Precisely through this it is easy to assume that the situation You will get better very quickly With an increase Vaccination rates. In the United States, more than 234 million doses have been given right now, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and that, for McLaren, would cause the numbers to drop. “Every case of Covid-19 being prevented cuts the transmission chains, and prevents many others in the future.”.

In any case, the expert points out: A. Early easing of procedures Of prevention would lead to infection curve Increase againGiven an example: “Reducing 1000 cases in half every day means reducing 500 cases on the first day and 125 cases on the third day, but only 31 cases on the fifth day”. In the United States, McClaren continues, the exponential decline has already occurred, because in just 22 days there was a drop in the daily cases of 100,000 people, from 250,000 injuries on January 8 to 150,000 on the 31st. Another 100,000 a day took three more than at the same time.

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Virus growth

The expert added that No virus can thrive forever At an exponential rate. Virus growth is limited by available resources, such as uninfected hosts, means of transmission, nutrients, water, etc. However, the initial exponential growth of viruses is increasing at an alarming rate. Fortunately, this kind of infectious growth rate doesn’t last indefinitely. ”.

Indeed, when the rate of growth reaches its peak, it begins to decline e “The curve changes from an exponential distribution to a normal distribution or a bell curve when the growth pattern begins to decline.”. The expert concludes that the goal now is to achieve herd immunity, but once this goal is reached, it is not necessary to think that new outbreaks will not appear anymore, but can be encountered easily. “While they do occur until the outbreaks themselves are less common.”.