The expected fiscal balances figures in the Cabinet between Tuesday and Wednesday are still dancing on the edge of a few decimal places. But the structure of Italy’s new accounting program, which was overshadowed by the energy crisis hit by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is now defined by its essential contents. and in its two primary tasks: ensuring a slight decline in debt/GDP, slightly this year and more pronounced in the following years, and liberating new spaces for managing the coverage of the last two energy decrees, in particular that of 1 March (Legislative Decree 17/2022), and giving breaths New aid to the economy end of the month.
Regarding debt, the US dollar should give a signal of certainty to the markets, which are considered indispensable during the closing of the pandemic umbrella of the European Central Bank. Confirmation of Italian rating (Baa3 with stable outlook) from Moody’s has arrived, but the season of international reviews of our government bonds is just beginning.
As for the new measures, the work between Palazzo Chigi and the Ministry of Economy is aimed at a possible opening of the horizon in the range of 25-26 billion. But beware, not all of them will be usable in the anticipated anti-crisis interventions. And above all, not all of them will be children of a new disability.
The main driver of public finances is in fact linked to the positive legacy of the recovery in GDP for 2021 that exceeded the most positive forecast, with +6.6%. An increase in revenues would produce additional aid in the range of 15-16 billion for this year. This positive trend is confirmed by the data on borrowing requirements, which stopped in the first three months of the year at 29.8 billion, an improvement of 11.3 billion compared to the same period in 2021. For this, the deficit will include an additional effort of about 8-10 billion to reach the dimensions The above-mentioned.
The growth rate in 2022 is descending
The entire engineering structure of Def must deal with growth that will be “significantly adjusted this year, with lower values” than expected, Economics Minister Daniele Franco emphasized yesterday, invoking scenarios “in which stagflation phenomena could also occur”. That the trend’s GDP stops at around +2.8%, nearly two points below the target set in October by Nadef, with 2-3 decimal places added in the programmatic framework thanks to new interventions arriving shortly after Parliament Pass Def ( It starts on April 11 and closes by 21.) With the possible addition, in fact, of some decimal deficit, which will in any case be played within the narrow confines of the need not to make the debt burden on GDP grow again. At this point, he should point out Def to a slight decrease compared to 2021 levels, near 151% after the last Istat correction for the nominal product, followed by a more decisive decline of less than 150% in 2023 and another net decrease over the years later.
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